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Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation

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Author Info

  • Jim Clayton

    ()
    (University of Cincinnati Hartford, CT 06103)

  • Greg MacKinnon

    ()
    (Saint Mary’s University Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 3C3)

  • Liang Peng

    ()
    (University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 80309-0419)

Abstract

This paper characterizes the behavior of and evaluates competing explanations for time variation in private real estate market liquidity documented in Fisher et al. (2003). In the first, sellers base their estimates of value on observations of signals from the market, but the presence of noise means a change in signal is not fully reflected in sellers?updated value estimates. The second incorporates the option value of waiting, or opportunity cost of not transacting, recently introduced by Krainer (2001) and Novy-Marx (2004), into seller’s optimal valuation strategy. In the third, we allow for the possibility of investors who are not fully rational in the sense that they trade on market sentiment and we link market-wide liquidity to investor sentiment with higher liquidity being due to the presence of irrationally over-optimistic traders. In this model measures of aggregate liquidity act as an indicator of the relative presence (or absence) of sentiment-based traders in the market place and therefore the divergence of asset price from fundamental value. Empirical findings are generally consistent with models of optimal valuation with rational updating and provide support for the opportunity cost approach.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 125-160

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:30:n:2:2008:p:125-160

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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References

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  1. Patric H. Hendershott & Donald R. Haurin, 1988. "Adjustments in the Real Estate Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 343-353.
  2. Sven Rady & François Ortalo-Magné, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series 470, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  4. Simon Gervais, 2001. "The High-Volume Return Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 877-919, 06.
  5. James R. Follairi, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 231-234.
  6. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng, 2006. "Estimating House Price Indexes in the Presence of Seller Reservation Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 100-112, February.
  7. Ravi Dhar & William Goetzmann, 2005. "Institutional Perspectives on Real Estate Investing: The Role of Risk and Uncertainty," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm457, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2005.
  8. Zhenguo Lin & Kerry D. Vandell, 2007. "Illiquidity and Pricing Biases in the Real Estate Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 291-330, 09.
  9. Huberman, G. & Halka, D., 1999. "Systematic Liquidity," Papers 99-9, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  10. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2003. "Controlling for the Impact of Variable Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 269-303, 06.
  11. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1977, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  12. David Genesove & Christopher J. Mayer, 1994. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 4861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Shaun Bond & Soosung Hwang & Zhenguo Lin & Kerry Vandell, 2007. "Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 447-461, May.
  14. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
  15. John Krainer & Mark Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2005. "Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values," Working Paper Series 2004-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. James A. Berkovec & John L. Goodman, 1996. "Turnover as a Measure of Demand for Existing Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 421-440.
  17. Daniel C. Quan & John M. Quigley, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 218-230.
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Cited by:
  1. John Mc Breen & Florence Goffette-Nagot & Pablo Jensen, 2011. "Information and Search on the Housing Market: An Agent-based Model," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1395, European Regional Science Association.
  2. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
  3. Bond, Shaun A. & Chang, Qingqing, 2012. "Liquidity dynamics across public and private markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1890-1910.
  4. Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2010. "House Price-Volume Dynamics: Evidence from 12 Cities in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 32(1), pages 75-100.
  5. Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Peng, Chi-Lu & Chen, Ming-Chi & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2013. "Wealth effects on the housing markets: Do market liquidity and market states matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 488-495.

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