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The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Author Info
Öller, Lars-Erik () (National Institute of Economic Research)
Barot, Bharat (National Institute of Economic Research)

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Abstract

One-year-ahead forecasts by the OECD and by national institutes of GDP growth and inflation in 13 European countries are analysed. RMSE was large: 1.9 % for growth and 1.6 % for inflation. Six (11) OECD and 10 (7) institute growth forecast records were significantly better than an average growth forecast (the current year forecast). All full record-length inflation forecasts were significantly better than both naive alternatives. There was no significant difference in accuracy between the forecasts of the OECD and the institutes. Two forecasts were found to be biased and one had autocorrelated errors. Directional forecasts were significantly better than a naive alternative in one-half of the cases. Overall, inflation forecasts were significantly more accurate than growth forecasts, and in contrast to growth forecasts, they generally improved over time. This has implications for economic policy. Positively biased revisions reveal large errors in data.

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Paper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Paper with number 72.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0072

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Keywords: Forecast accuracy Directional errors Forecast tests

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McNees, Stephen K., 1989. "Forecasts and actuals: The trade-off between timeliness and accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 409-416. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael J. Artis, 1996. "How Accurate are the IMF's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook," IMF Working Papers 96/89, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Zellner, Arnold, 1986. "Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 45-48. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 6228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
  7. Robert Fildes & Herman Stekler, 1999. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 000020, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," NBER Technical Working Papers 0215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  10. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Keereman, F., 1999. "The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 137, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
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  1. Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 2007/23, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  2. Roland Döhrn, 2006. "Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors?," RWI Discussion Papers 0051, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mark Greer, 2005. "Combination forecasting for directional accuracy: An application to survey interest rate forecasts," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 607-615, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jef Vuchelen & Maria-Isabel Gutierrez, 2005. "Do the OECD 24 month horizon growth forecasts for the G7--countries contain information?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 855-862, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Masahiro Ashiya, 2005. "Twenty-two years of Japanese institutional forecasts," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 79-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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