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The Accuracy Analysis of Inflation Rate Forecasts in Euro Area

Author

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  • MIHAELA SIMIONESCU

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Calea 13 Septembrie, No. 13, District 5, Bucharest, ROMANIA)

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of the accuracy associated to the inflation forecasts for euro area made by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). On the horizon from 2000 to 2013, IMF provided significantly more accurate inflation rate forecasts compared to OECD, according to Diebold-Mariano test and U1 Theil’s statistic value. Moreover, the predictions provided by the two institutions are better than the naïve ones. All the predictions do not provide valuable information for future decisional process.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "The Accuracy Analysis of Inflation Rate Forecasts in Euro Area," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 3(1), pages 80-85, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntu:ntugeo:vol3-iss1-15-080
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; accuracy; directional accuracy; U Theil’s statistic; Diebold-Mariano test; inflation rate.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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