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The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF

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  • Masahiro Ashiya

Abstract

A considerable number of studies have investigated the directional accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts, and have obtained mixed results for long-term forecasts. This paper re-examines this issue using the IMF forecasts for the G7 countries, and find that combining the long-term and the short-term forecasts significantly improves the directional accuracy.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/1350485022000040998&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 331-333

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:6:p:331-333

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Cited by:
  1. Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
  4. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  5. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2006. "An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1287-1292.
  6. Easterly, William, 2006. "An identity crisis? Examining IMF financial programming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 964-980, June.
  7. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 30-42.

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