The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF
AbstractA considerable number of studies have investigated the directional accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts, and have obtained mixed results for long-term forecasts. This paper re-examines this issue using the IMF forecasts for the G7 countries, and find that combining the long-term and the short-term forecasts significantly improves the directional accuracy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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Web page: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/routledge/13504851.html
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- Jordi Pons-Novell, 2006. "An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1287-1292.
- Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
- Easterly, William, 2006. "An identity crisis? Examining IMF financial programming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 964-980, June.
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