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Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts

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  • Masahiro Ashiya

    (Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

Past literature casts doubt on the ability of long-term macroeconomic forecasts to predict the direction of change. We re-examine this issue using the Japanese GDP forecast data of 37 institutions, and find that their 16-month-ahead forecasts contain valuable information on whether the growth rate accelerates or not. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley _ Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.980
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 201-207

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:3:p:201-207

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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Cited by:
  1. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
  2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.
  3. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
  4. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 30-42.

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