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Masahiro Ashiya

Personal Details

First Name:Masahiro
Middle Name:
Last Name:Ashiya
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pas64
http://www2.kobe-u.ac.jp/~ashiya/
Terminal Degree:1999 Faculty of Economics; University of Tokyo (from RePEc Genealogy)

Affiliation

Faculty of Economics
Kobe University

Kobe, Japan
http://www.econ.kobe-u.ac.jp/
RePEc:edi:fekobjp (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles

Working papers

  1. Masahiro Ashiya, 2017. "The Frequency of Arbitrage Opportunities in Mombetsu City Horse Racing," Discussion Papers 1713, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  2. Masahiro Ashiya, 2016. "On the efficiency of the betting market of Arao city horse race," Discussion Papers 1618, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  3. Masahiro Ashiya, 2013. "The frequency of arbitrage opportunities in Saga city horse racing," Discussion Papers 1302, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  4. Masahiro Ashiya, 2013. "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," Discussion Papers 1301, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  5. Ashiya, M., 2000. "Japanese GDP Forecasters Are Pressimistic in Boom, Optimistic in Recession, and Always Too Jumpy," ISER Discussion Paper 0513, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  6. Ashiya, M., 1999. "Price-Matching Cannot Sustain Collusion if One or More Consumers Incur Enforcement Costs," ISER Discussion Paper 0472, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  7. Ashiya, M. & Doi, T., 1999. "Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists," ISER Discussion Paper 0479, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  8. Ashiya, M., 1999. "Brand Proliferation is Useless to Deter Entry," ISER Discussion Paper 0476, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  9. Ashiya, M., 1998. "Weak Entrants are Welcome," ISER Discussion Paper 0468, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

Articles

  1. Masahiro Ashiya, 2015. "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 322-330, April.
  2. Masahiro Ashiya, 2010. "Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 435-441.
  3. Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.
  4. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
  5. Masahiro Ashiya, 2007. "Consensus and accuracy of Japanese GDP forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 969-974.
  6. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
  7. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2006. "Forecast accuracy and product differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-401.
  8. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
  9. Masahiro Ashiya, 2003. "The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 331-333.
  10. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2003. "Testing the rationality of Japanese GDP forecasts: the sign of forecast revision matters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 263-269, February.
  11. Masahiro Ashiya, 2002. "Sequential Entry in a Vertically Differentiated Market," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 315-336, September.
  12. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2002. "Accuracy and rationality of Japanese institutional forecasters," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 203-213, April.
  13. Ashiya, Masahiro & Doi, Takero, 2001. "Herd behavior of Japanese economists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 343-346, November.
  14. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2000. "Weak entrants are welcome," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 975-984, August.

    RePEc:taf:apfelt:v:1:y:2005:i:2:p:79-84 is not listed on IDEAS

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Masahiro Ashiya, 2013. "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," Discussion Papers 1301, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

    Cited by:

    1. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2017. "Behavioral Biases Never Walk Alone," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(2), pages 99-125, February.

  2. Ashiya, M. & Doi, T., 1999. "Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists," ISER Discussion Paper 0479, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Drehmann & Joerg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2002. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Finance 0210005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ashiya, M. & Doi, T., 1999. "Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists," ISER Discussion Paper 0479, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Carina Burs, 2023. "A Model of Cycles and Bubbles under Heterogeneous Beliefs in Financial Markets," Working Papers CIE 154, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    4. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reid, Monique B. & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding: Evidence from South African survey data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 42-50.
    5. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2002. "Accuracy and rationality of Japanese institutional forecasters," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 203-213, April.
    6. Filiz, Ibrahim & Nahmer, Thomas & Spiwoks, Markus, 2019. "Herd behavior and mood: An experimental study on the forecasting of share prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    7. Aghamolla, Cyrus & Hashimoto, Tadashi, 2020. "Information arrival, delay, and clustering in financial markets with dynamic freeriding," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 27-52.
    8. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ichiue, Hibiki & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Shigemi, Yosuke, 2013. "Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 526-530.
    9. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    10. Kuo-Hwa Chang & Michael Nayat Young, 2019. "Portfolios Optimizations of Behavioral Stocks with Perception Probability Weightings," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 817-845, November.
    11. John B. Broughton & Bento J. Lobo, 2018. "Herding and anchoring in macroeconomic forecasts: the case of the PMI," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1337-1355, November.
    12. Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2021. "Strategic bias and popularity effect in the prediction of economic surprises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1095-1117, September.
    13. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    14. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
    15. Kosei Fukuda, 2009. "Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 243-267, May.
    16. Brzezicka Justyna & Wisniewski Radosław, 2014. "Price Bubble In The Real Estate Market - Behavioral Aspects," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 1-14, March.
    17. Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.
    18. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ashiya, M., 2000. "Japanese GDP Forecasters Are Pressimistic in Boom, Optimistic in Recession, and Always Too Jumpy," ISER Discussion Paper 0513, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    20. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66, March.
    21. Chiang, Thomas C. & Li, Jiandong & Tan, Lin, 2010. "Empirical investigation of herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 111-124.
    22. Raj Aggarwal & Sijing Zong, 2008. "Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates: Evidence of Systematic Pessimism and Under-Reaction," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 241-277, September.
    23. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
    24. Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," ifo Working Paper Series 39, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    25. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-129.

  3. Ashiya, M., 1999. "Brand Proliferation is Useless to Deter Entry," ISER Discussion Paper 0476, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

    Cited by:

    1. Ashiya, M., 1998. "Weak Entrants are Welcome," ISER Discussion Paper 0468, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

  4. Ashiya, M., 1998. "Weak Entrants are Welcome," ISER Discussion Paper 0468, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Zong-Hong & Zhou, Yong-Wu & Zhao, Ju & Li, Chang-Wen, 2015. "Entry mode selection and its impact on an incumbent supply chain coordination," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Ishibashi, Ikuo, 2003. "A note on credible spatial entry deterrence," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 283-289, February.
    3. Murooka, Takeshi, 2013. "A note on credible spatial preemption in an entry–exit game," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 26-28.
    4. Magazzini, Laura & Pammolli, Fabio & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2004. "Dynamic Competition in Pharmaceuticals: Patent Expiry, Generic Penetration, and Industry Structure," MPRA Paper 15968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aidan Hollis, 2003. "The Anti-Competitive Effects of Brand-Controlled "Pseudo- Generics" in the Canadian Pharmaceutical Market," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(1), pages 21-31, March.
    6. Zhou, Yong-Wu & Cao, Zong-Hong & Zhong, Yuanguang, 2015. "Pricing and alliance selection for a dominant retailer with an upstream entry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 211-223.
    7. Junichiro Ishida & Toshihiro Matsumura & Noriaki Matsushima, 2011. "Market Competition, R&D And Firm Profits In Asymmetric Oligopoly," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 484-505, September.
    8. Luciano Fanti & Domenico Buccella, 2017. "Profit raising entry effects in network industries with Corporate Social Responsibility," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 59-68.
    9. Arijit Mukherjee & Achintya Ray, 2014. "Entry, Profit and Welfare under Asymmetric R&D Costs," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(3), pages 284-295, June.
    10. Kitamura, Hiroshi, 2010. "Exclusionary vertical contracts with multiple entrants," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 213-219, May.
    11. Ashiya, M., 1999. "Brand Proliferation is Useless to Deter Entry," ISER Discussion Paper 0476, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    12. Yi-Ling Cheng & Takatoshi Tabuchi, 2018. "Product Proliferation and First Mover Advantage in a Multiproduct Duopoly," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1091, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    13. Xiao, Tiaojun & Qi, Xiangtong, 2010. "Strategic wholesale pricing in a supply chain with a potential entrant," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 444-455, April.
    14. Byford, Martin C. & Gans, Joshua S., 2019. "Strengthening a weak rival for a fight," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-17.
    15. Ashiya, M., 1998. "Weak Entrants are Welcome," ISER Discussion Paper 0468, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    16. Abdulaziz Istaitieh & José M. Rodríguez‐Fernández, 2006. "Factor‐product markets and firm's capital structure: A literature review," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 49-75.
    17. Laura Magazzini & Fabio Pammolli & Gianluca Papa & Nicola Carmine Salerno, 2005. "Generici vs. Branded: confronto internazionale su prodotti off-patent rimborsati dal SSN," Working Papers CERM 01-2005, Competitività, Regole, Mercati (CERM).
    18. Hiroshi Kitamura, 2008. "Exclusionary Vertical Contracts with Multiple Entrants," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-39, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    19. Byoung Heon Jun & In-Uck Park, 2005. "Anti-Limit Pricing," Levine's Bibliography 172782000000000041, UCLA Department of Economics.
    20. Ikuo Ishibashi & Noriaki Matsushima, 2006. "Inviting entrants may help incumbent firms," Discussion Papers 2006-46, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration.
    21. Yenipazarli, Arda, 2021. "Downstream entry revisited: Economic effects of entry in vertically-related markets," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    22. Laura Magazzini & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2004. "Dynamic competition in pharmaceuticals," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 5(2), pages 175-182, May.
    23. Toshihiro Matsumura & Noriaki Matsushima, 2009. "Cost differentials and mixed strategy equilibria in a Hotelling model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 43(1), pages 215-234, March.
    24. Istaitieh, Abdulaziz & Rodriguez-Fernandez, Jose M., 2006. "Factor-product markets and firm's capital structure: A literature review," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 49-75.
    25. Bong‐Ju Kim & Inho Chung, 2010. "Inter‐Market Competition Through Bundling In The Presence Of Cost Advantage," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 116-132, March.
    26. Hattori, Keisuke & Yamada, Mai, 2020. "Welfare Implications of Sequential Entry with Heterogeneous Firms," MPRA Paper 103422, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Articles

  1. Masahiro Ashiya, 2015. "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 322-330, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Masahiro Ashiya, 2010. "Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 435-441.

    Cited by:

    1. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.

  3. Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.

    Cited by:

    1. Rybacki Jakub, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: The role of forecasting competitions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 919-945, August.
    3. Masahiro Ashiya, 2010. "Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 435-441.
    4. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ichiue, Hibiki & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Shigemi, Yosuke, 2013. "Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 526-530.
    6. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    8. Tillmann, Peter, 2011. "Strategic forecasting on the FOMC," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 547-553, September.
    9. Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2021. "Strategic bias and popularity effect in the prediction of economic surprises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1095-1117, September.
    10. Sergey V. Smirnov, 2014. "Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Martha Starr, 2012. "Contributions of Economists to the Housing-Price Bubble," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 143-172.
    12. Monique Reid & Stan du Plessis, 2011. "Talking to the inattentive Public: How the media translates the Reserve Bank’s communications," Working Papers 19/2011, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    13. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & Rook, Laurens, 2019. "Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-56.
    14. Rybacki, Jakub, 2020. "Polish GDP Forecast Errors: A Tale of Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 98952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
    16. Monique Reid & Stan Du Plessis, 2011. "Talking to the inattentive public: How the media translates the Reserve Bank’s communications," Working Papers 254, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    17. Michael P. Clements, 2018. "Do Macroforecasters Herd?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 265-292, March.
    18. Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
    19. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
    20. Guay C. Lim & Chew Lian Chua & Edda Claus & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2010. "Review of the Australian Economy 2009–10: On the Road to Recovery," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(1), pages 1-11, March.

  4. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert Krol, 2014. "Forecast Bias of Government Agencies," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(1), pages 99-112, Winter.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 407-430, September.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2012. "Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 18283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 604, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Masahiro Ashiya, 2003. "The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 331-333.
    6. Chikamatsu, Kyosuke & Hirakata, Naohisa & Kido, Yosuke & Otaka, Kazuki, 2021. "Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990-2021," KIER Working Papers 1088, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(2), pages 247-272, June.
    9. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2022. "Uncertainty in long-term macroeconomic forecasts: Ex post evaluation of forecasts by economics researchers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 8-15.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Paper Series 11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    11. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
    12. komaki, Yasuyuki, 2023. "Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," NBER Working Papers 17239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Do forecasters inform or reassure?," KOF Working papers 09-215, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    15. Lundtofte, Frederik & Leoni, Patrick, 2010. "Growth Forecasts, Belief Manipulation and Capital Markets," Working Papers 2010:8, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 30 May 2012.
    16. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
    17. William Easterly, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Debt Crises, and Economic Growth," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo J. Caballero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (ed.),Economic Policies in Emerging-Market Economies Festschrift in Honor of Vittorio Corbo, edition 1, volume 21, chapter 8, pages 139-154, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2012. "Evaluating Japanese corporate executives’ forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 601-603.
    19. Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2021. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States," Working Papers DP-2022-02, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    20. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
    21. William Easterly, 2012. "The Role of Growth Slowdowns and Forecast Errors in Public Debt Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 151-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  5. Masahiro Ashiya, 2007. "Consensus and accuracy of Japanese GDP forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 969-974.

    Cited by:

    1. Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank & Zaklan, Georg, 2009. "A Metzlerian business cycle model with nonlinear heterogeneous expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 715-720, May.
    2. H.O. Stekler & Kazuta Sakamoto, 2008. "Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example," Working Papers 2008-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

  6. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.

    Cited by:

    1. IIZUKA Nobuo, 2013. "Predicting Business Cycle Phases by Professional Forecasters－ Are They Useful ?," ESRI Discussion paper series 305, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    3. Masahiro Ashiya, 2003. "The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 331-333.
    4. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
    5. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    6. Edda Claus, 2011. "Seven Leading Indexes of New Zealand Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 76-89, March.
    7. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
    8. Grant Allan, 2012. "Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth," Working Papers 1214, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Y. Tsuchiya, 2014. "A directional evaluation of corporate executives' exchange rate forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 95-101, January.
    10. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 30-42.
    11. Siddons, Craig & Allan, Grant & McIntyre, Stuart, 2015. "How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 224-228.
    12. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.

  7. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2006. "Forecast accuracy and product differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-401.

    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Ashiya, 2010. "Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 435-441.
    2. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Gabi Waldhof, 2017. "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201701, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    4. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Gabi Waldhof, 2017. "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters," Working Papers 2017-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    5. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
    6. Karsten Müller, 2022. "German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2373-2415, May.
    7. H.O. Stekler & Kazuta Sakamoto, 2008. "Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example," Working Papers 2008-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    8. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    9. Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," ifo Working Paper Series 39, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

  8. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.

    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-14, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Apr 2013.
    2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
    3. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    5. Rybacki, Jakub, 2021. "Does International Monetary Fund Favor Certain Countries During the Fiscal Forecasting – Evidence of the Institutional Biases?," MPRA Paper 107681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
    7. Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2021. "Strategic bias and popularity effect in the prediction of economic surprises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1095-1117, September.
    8. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    9. Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.
    10. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Reputation and Forecast Revisions: Evidence from the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201128, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Philip Hans Franses, 2020. "Correcting the January optimism effect," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 927-933, September.
    12. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2019. "Professional Forecasters and January," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

  9. Masahiro Ashiya, 2003. "The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 331-333.

    Cited by:

    1. IIZUKA Nobuo, 2013. "Predicting Business Cycle Phases by Professional Forecasters－ Are They Useful ?," ESRI Discussion paper series 305, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Directional accuracy for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(2), pages 129-138, September.
    3. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    4. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Rathin Roy, 2015. "Finance Commission of India’s Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers id:6581, eSocialSciences.
    6. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
    7. Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar, 2023. "A model-free approach to do long-term volatility forecasting and its variants," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-38, December.
    8. Grant Allan, 2012. "Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth," Working Papers 1214, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2006. "An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1287-1292.
    10. Y. Tsuchiya, 2014. "A directional evaluation of corporate executives' exchange rate forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 95-101, January.
    11. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 30-42.
    12. Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    14. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    15. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Carlos MatéJIMÉNEZ & Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Assessment of Some Macroeconomic Forecasts for Spain using Aggregated Accuracy Indicators," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 30-47, June.
    16. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
    17. Nithin K. & Roy, Rathin, 2014. "Finance Commission of India's Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers 14/141, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    18. Easterly, William, 2006. "An identity crisis? Examining IMF financial programming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 964-980, June.

  10. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2003. "Testing the rationality of Japanese GDP forecasts: the sign of forecast revision matters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 263-269, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-14, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Apr 2013.
    2. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena, 2018. "The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," Working Papers 2018/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
    4. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2020. "Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment: a simulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 75-116, January.
    5. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
    6. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ichiue, Hibiki & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Shigemi, Yosuke, 2013. "Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 526-530.
    7. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2013. "When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5086-5103, December.
    8. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2006. "Forecast accuracy and product differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-401.
    9. Maiko Koga & Haruko Kato, 2017. "Behavioral Biases in Firms' Growth Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    10. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    11. H.O. Stekler & Kazuta Sakamoto, 2008. "Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example," Working Papers 2008-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    12. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2006. "An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1287-1292.
    13. Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.
    14. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2004. "Behavioural biases among interest rate forecasters?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 319-321.
    15. Rybacki, Jakub, 2020. "Polish GDP Forecast Errors: A Tale of Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 98952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    17. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Reputation and Forecast Revisions: Evidence from the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201128, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    18. Philip Hans Franses, 2020. "Correcting the January optimism effect," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 927-933, September.
    19. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465, April.
    20. Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2022. "The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-122, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    21. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2008. "Are they really rational? Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    22. Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
    23. Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun & Puah, Chin-Hong & Md Isa, Abu Hassan, 2012. "Theory of rational expectations hypothesis: banks and other financial institutions in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 36657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
    25. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
    26. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
    27. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2019. "Professional Forecasters and January," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

  11. Masahiro Ashiya, 2002. "Sequential Entry in a Vertically Differentiated Market," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 315-336, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Murooka, Takeshi, 2013. "A note on credible spatial preemption in an entry–exit game," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 26-28.

  12. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2002. "Accuracy and rationality of Japanese institutional forecasters," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 203-213, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
    2. Chikamatsu, Kyosuke & Hirakata, Naohisa & Kido, Yosuke & Otaka, Kazuki, 2021. "Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Ding, David K. & Charoenwong, Charlie & Seetoh, Raymond, 2004. "Prospect theory, analyst forecasts, and stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4-5), pages 425-442.
    4. komaki, Yasuyuki, 2023. "Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Raj Aggarwal & Sijing Zong, 2008. "Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates: Evidence of Systematic Pessimism and Under-Reaction," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 241-277, September.
    6. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.

  13. Ashiya, Masahiro & Doi, Takero, 2001. "Herd behavior of Japanese economists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 343-346, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2000. "Weak entrants are welcome," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 975-984, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.

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