Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data
AbstractThe paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/ revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naïve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-215.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Quality of statistical data; real-time data; signal-to-noise ratio; forecasts; revisions;
Other versions of this item:
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure? Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(4), pages 269-294.
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure?: Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 858, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C89 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-03-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2009-03-22 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2009-03-22 (Forecasting)
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