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Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data

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Author Info
Konstantin A. Kholodilin () (DIW Berlin, Germany)
Boriss Siliverstovs () (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

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Abstract

The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/ revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naïve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-215.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-215

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Related research
Keywords: Quality of statistical data; real-time data; signal-to-noise ratio; forecasts; revisions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
C89 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other

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  1. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.
    Other versions:
  2. de Gooijer, Jan G. & Klein, Andre, 1992. "On the cumulated multi-step-ahead predictions of vector autoregressive moving average processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 501-513, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Graham Elliott, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Knetsch, Thomas A. & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "How to treat benchmark revisions? : The case of German production and orders statistics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,38, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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