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How to treat benchmark revisions? : The case of German production and orders statistics

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Author Info
Knetsch, Thomas A.
Reimers, Hans-Eggert

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Abstract

Elements of an econometric examination of benchmark revisions in real-time data are suggested. Structural break tests may be applied to detect heterogeneities within vintages. Systems cointegration tests are helpful to reveal inconsistencies across vintages. Differencing and rebasing, often used to adjust for benchmark revisions, are generally not sufficient to ensure consistent real-time macroeconomic data. Vintage transformation functions estimated by cointegrating regressions are more flexible. Inappropriate conversion may cause observed revision statistics to be affected by nuisance parameters. In German industrial production and orders statistics, remaining revisions are generally biased and serially correlated. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,38.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5155

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Related research
Keywords: real-time data; benchmark revisions; industrial production; orders;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2005. "A "wreckers theory" of financial distress," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Siklos, Pierre L, 1996. "An Empirical Exploration of Revisions in U.S. National Income Aggregates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 59-70, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005. "In search of distress risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Koetter, Michael & Bos, Jaap W. B. & Heid, Frank & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Kolari, James W. & Porath, Daniel, 2005. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Sturm Jan-Egbert, 2008. "The information content of KOF indicators on Swiss current account data revisions," KOF Working papers 08-202, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data," KOF Working papers 09-215, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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