Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns
AbstractWe report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report three results. 1) Real-time macroeconomic data did not contribute much to ex ante stock-return predictability. 2) The performance of an investor who had to rely on noisy real-time macroeconomic data would have been comparable to the performance of an investor who had access to revised macroeconomic data. 3) In real time, it is important for an investor to know which real-time variable to use for predicting stock returns. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,10.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Ex ante predictability of stock returns; real-time macroeconomic data; performance of investment strategies; Germany;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-08-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-08-05 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-08-05 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-08-05 (Macroeconomics)
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