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Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time

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Author Info
Pierdzioch, Christian
Döpke, Jörg
Hartmann, Daniel

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Abstract

We compare forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we use a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We use statistical criteria, a utility-based criterion, and an options-based criterion to evaluate volatility forecasts. Our main result is that the statistical and economic value of volatility forecasts based on real-time macroeconomic data is comparable to the value of forecasts based on revised macroeconomic data.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V7T-4NF7Y71-2/1/ca573dac1002bacb1d30017d382128b8
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.

Volume (Year): 60 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 256-276
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:60:y:2008:i:3:p:256-276

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus

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  1. West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2005. "A "wreckers theory" of financial distress," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005. "In search of distress risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Koetter, Michael & Bos, Jaap W. B. & Heid, Frank & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Kolari, James W. & Porath, Daniel, 2005. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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