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Trade balances of the central and east European EU member states and the role of foreign direct investment

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Author Info
Herrmann, Sabine
Jochem, Axel

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Abstract

Given the large trade and current account deficits in some of the new EU member states the development of their external economic situation plays a role in assessing their aptitude to enter the European Monetary Union. The empirical analysis with aggregated data indicates that in the eight central and east European EU member states FDI and trade are complementary. This result is confirmed by an FDI enhanced gravity model which makes use of sectoral data provided by the Bundesbank?s micro database direct investment (MIDI). The net effect of FDI on the trade balance is ambiguous, but FDI in high-tech industries clearly stimulates exports more than imports. Technological spill-over and the conglomeration of human capital seem to be important factors for the export performance. Against this background the prospects for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic look more favourable compared to the Baltic states. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,41.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4235

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Related research
Keywords: foreign direct investment; trade balance; gravity model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2005. "A "wreckers theory" of financial distress," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005. "In search of distress risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Koetter, Michael & Bos, Jaap W. B. & Heid, Frank & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Kolari, James W. & Porath, Daniel, 2005. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union: Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2009. "An Assessment of the Current Account Sustainability in Romania – An Inter-temporal Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 23-41, June. [Downloadable!]
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