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Trade balances of the central and east European EU member states and the role of foreign direct investment

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  • Herrmann, Sabine
  • Jochem, Axel

Abstract

Given the large trade and current account deficits in some of the new EU member states the development of their external economic situation plays a role in assessing their aptitude to enter the European Monetary Union. The empirical analysis with aggregated data indicates that in the eight central and east European EU member states FDI and trade are complementary. This result is confirmed by an FDI enhanced gravity model which makes use of sectoral data provided by the Bundesbank's micro database direct investment (MIDI). The net effect of FDI on the trade balance is ambiguous, but FDI in high-tech industries clearly stimulates exports more than imports. Technological spill-over and the conglomeration of human capital seem to be important factors for the export performance. Against this background the prospects for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic look more favourable compared to the Baltic states. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,41.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4235

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Keywords: foreign direct investment; trade balance; gravity model;

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  1. Szilagyi, Jan & Hilscher, Jens & Campbell, John, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Scholarly Articles 3199070, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Falko Fecht & Kevin X. D. Huang & Antoine Martin, 2004. "Financial intermediaries, markets, and growth," Working Papers 04-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Koetter, M. & Bos, J.W.B. & Heid, F. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M. & Porath, D., 2007. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3200-3217, October.
  5. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2005. "A "wreckers theory" of financial distress," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Cited by:
  1. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Dumitru, Ionut, 2008. "O evaluare a sustenabilitatii deficitului de cont curent in Romania
    [An assessment of the current account sustainability in Romania]
    ," MPRA Paper 18614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Dumitru, Ionut, 2008. "An assessment of the current account sustainability in Romania," MPRA Paper 18613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2009. "An Assessment of the Current Account Sustainability in Romania – An Inter-temporal Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 23-41, June.
  6. Karel Janda & Eva Michalíková & Věra Potácelová, 2010. "Gravity and Fiscal Models of Government Support of Export Credit in the Czech Republic," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(3), pages 305-325.

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