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An assessment of the current account sustainability in Romania

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  • Dumitru, Ionut

Abstract

This paper assesses the sustainability of the CA deficits in the New Member States (NMS) of European Union by estimating its structural component based on fundamentals. Using a large sample of panel data, we estimated long term relationships for the CA deficit and its fundamentals using two methods from the literature. The main conclusion of the paper is that in some countries there is an excessive CA deficit which should be adjusted. In the case of Romania, the results are showing that the structural CA could be between 6.3% and 10.9% of GDP, depending on the model used and the econometric procedure. Another important result of the paper is that the main drivers of the CA deficits in NMS are the economic convergence factors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18613.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18613

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Related research

Keywords: structural CA deficit; convergence; relative income; Ricardian equivalence;

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References

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  1. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Romania," IMF Staff Country Reports 08/210, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
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  8. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2004. "Current accounts dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 0311, European Central Bank.
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  12. Paolo Zanghieri, 2004. "Current Accounts Dynamics in new EU members: Sustainability and Policy Issues," Working Papers 2004-07, CEPII research center.
  13. Daniel Leigh & Abdul Abiad & Ashoka Mody, 2007. "International Finance and Income Convergence," IMF Working Papers 07/64, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 96/58, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  16. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Isadora LAZAR & Madalina Ecaterina ANDREICA, 2013. "Current Account Balance, Private Debt And Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Comparison Of North And South," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 37(2(46)), pages 40-52, December.

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