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Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change

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  • Brissimis, Sophocles N.
  • Hondroyiannis, George
  • Papazoglou, Christos
  • Tsaveas, Nicholas T.
  • Vasardani, Melina A.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the main macroeconomic, financial and structural factors that shaped current account developments in Greece over the period from 1960 to 2007 and discuss these developments in relation to the issue of external sustainability. Concerns over Greece’s external sustainability have emerged since 1999 when the current account deficit widened substantially and exhibited high persistence. The empirical model used, which theoretically rests on the intertemporal approach, treats the current account as the gap between domestic saving and investment. We examine the behaviour of the current account in the long run and the short run using co-integration analysis and a variety of econometric tests to account for the effect of significant structural changes in the period under review. We find that a stable equilibrium current account model can be derived if the ratio of private sector financing to GDP, as a proxy for financial liberalisation, is included in the specification. Policy options to restore the country’s external sustainability are explored based on the estimated equilibrium model. JEL Classification: F30, F32

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1243.

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Date of creation: Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101243

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Keywords: Current account model; external sustainability;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece," Working Papers 169, Bank of Greece.
  2. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
  3. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Garganas, Eugenie N. & Hall, Stephen G., 2012. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: An overreaction to repressed demand?," MPRA Paper 41819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. repec:pra:mprapa:40579 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Nkuna, Onelie, 2013. "Sustainability of the Malawian Current Account Deficit: Application of Structural and Solvency Approaches," MPRA Paper 51919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Brissimis, Sophocles & Hondroyiannis, George & Papazoglou, Christos & Tsaveas, Nicholas & Vasardani, Melina, 2011. "The determinants of current account imbalances in the Euro Area: a panel estimation approach," MPRA Paper 35362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Dramane Coulibaly & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current Accounts and Oil Price Fluctuations in Oil-Exporting Countries: the Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 2013-19, CEPII research center.
  8. Andreou Andreas S. & Zombanakis George A. & Migiakis Petros M., 2013. "On Defence Expenditure Reduction: Balancing Between Austerity and Security in Greece," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, December.

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