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On the Empirical Evidence of the Intertemporal Current Account Model for the Euro Area Countries

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  • Michele Ca' Zorzi
  • Michał Rubaszek

Abstract

In this paper we present a novel approach to the empirical validation of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We develop a calibrated model highlighting the role of consumption smoothing and capital accumulation in the economic convergence process. After solving the model, we derive the theoretical values for the euro area countries’ current account, testing to what extent they match reality. The model explains most of the dispersion in the current account and saving ratio, though cannot equally well capture differences in the investment ratios. The conclusion that we draw is that consumption smoothing, based on expectations of economic convergence, is driving the current account of the euro area countries over medium-term horizons. Capital accumulation appears to play a less pronounced role. JEL Classification: D91, F36, F41
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  • Michele Ca' Zorzi & Michał Rubaszek, 2012. "On the Empirical Evidence of the Intertemporal Current Account Model for the Euro Area Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 95-106, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:1:p:95-106
    DOI: j.1467-9361.2011.00648.x
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    Cited by:

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    3. Karl Farmer, 2016. "The Intertemporal Equilibrium Modeling of Intra-EMU and Global Trade Imbalances," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(4), pages 377-395, November.
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    5. Paul Gretton, 2022. "National and Sectoral Effects of a Decline in the Desirability of Investing in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 91-121, March.
    6. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    7. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Esteve, Vicente, 2021. "The Current Account Of The Spanish Economy, 1850-2016: Was It Optimal?," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 329-354, September.
    8. Philip R. Lane & Barbara Pels, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp397, IIIS.
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    10. Danica Unevska Andonova & Branimir Jovanovic, 2011. "Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account," Working Papers 2011-06, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    11. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2017. "Drivers of India’s current account deficits, with implications for ameliorating them," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 23-32.
    12. Michal Rubaszek, 2017. "Reforming housing rental market in a life-cycle model," KAE Working Papers 2017-028, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    13. Mr. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2010. "The Euro’s Effecton Trade Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2010/226, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Elena Angelini & Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Katrin Forster van Aerssen, 2016. "External and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Larger Euro-Area Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 269-291, December.
    15. Bussière, Matthieu & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini E. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2021. "Current Account Dynamics And The Real Exchange Rate: Disentangling The Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 28-58, January.
    16. Torój, Andrzej, 2017. "Managing external macroeconomic imbalances in the EU: the welfare cost of scoreboard-based constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 293-311.
    17. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/127, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Kamel Jlassi, 2015. "Modelling and Forecasting of Tunisian Current Account: Aggregate versus Disaggregate Approach," IHEID Working Papers 13-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    20. Boonman, Tjeerd & Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2022. "Modelling the trade balance between the northern and southern eurozone using an intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    21. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," Working Papers hal-04141675, HAL.
    22. Patrik RYFF, 2010. "Friedman Meets the Joneses: A Model of Essential Money with Consumption Externalities," EcoMod2010 259600146, EcoMod.
    23. Enno Schröder, 2015. "Eurozone Imbalances: Measuring the Contribution of Expenditure Switching and Expenditure Volumes 1990-2013," Working Papers 1508, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    24. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2014. "Wearing corset, losing shape: The euro's effect on trade imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 136-155.
    25. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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