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On the Empirical Evidence of the Intertemporal Current Account Model for the Euro Area Countries

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  • Michele Ca' Zorzi
  • Michał Rubaszek

Abstract

In this paper we present a novel approach to the empirical validation of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We develop a calibrated model highlighting the role of consumption smoothing and capital accumulation in the economic convergence process. After solving the model, we derive the theoretical values for the euro area countries’ current account, testing to what extent they match reality. The model explains most of the dispersion in the current account and saving ratio, though cannot equally well capture differences in the investment ratios. The conclusion that we draw is that consumption smoothing, based on expectations of economic convergence, is driving the current account of the euro area countries over medium-term horizons. Capital accumulation appears to play a less pronounced role. JEL Classification: D91, F36, F41

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 95-106

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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:1:p:95-106

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References

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  1. Paul Bergin & Steven Sheffrin, . "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account," Department of Economics 97-22, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  2. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
  3. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2004. "Current accounts dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 0311, European Central Bank.
  4. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Working Paper 2003-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  8. Campa, Jose M. & Gavilán, Angel, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," IESE Research Papers D/651, IESE Business School.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-044, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Philip Schellekens & Rudolfs Bems, 2007. "Finance and Convergence: What's Ahead for Emerging Europe?," IMF Working Papers 07/244, International Monetary Fund.
  11. John Y. Campbell, 1988. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989. "Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account," Papers 61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  13. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  14. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  15. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
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Cited by:
  1. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Hondroyiannis, George & Papazoglou, Christos & Tsaveas, Nicholas T. & Vasardani, Melina A., 2010. "Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change," Working Paper Series 1243, European Central Bank.
  2. Philip R. Lane & Barbara Pels, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp397, IIIS.
  3. Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy," Working Paper Series 1441, European Central Bank.
  4. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2014. "Wearing corset, losing shape: The euro's effect on trade imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 136-155.
  5. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2010. "The Euro’s Effect on Trade Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 10/226, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  7. Jörg Decressin & Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/127, International Monetary Fund.

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