Growth Forecasts, Belief Manipulation and Capital Markets
AbstractWe analyze how a benevolent, privately-informed government agency would optimally release information about the economy's growth rate when the agents hold heterogeneous beliefs. We model two types of agents: "trusting" and "distrustful." The former has a prior that is identical to that of the government agency, whereas the latter has a prior that differs from that of the government agency. We identify both "revealing" and "nonrevealing" equilibria and demonstrate that the "nonrevealing" equilibria can dominate the "revealing" equilibria in terms of ex-post social welfare.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2010:8.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 31 Jul 2010
Date of revision: 30 May 2012
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/
More information through EDIRC
Social welfare; information; forecasting; asset pricing; heterogeneous beliefs;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-08-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-08-21 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CTA-2010-08-21 (Contract Theory & Applications)
- NEP-FOR-2010-08-21 (Forecasting)
- NEP-REG-2010-08-21 (Regulation)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009.
"Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1187-1215, 06.
- Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2007. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," 2005 Meeting Papers 78, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2004. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Working Papers 04-32, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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