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The Quality of Public Information and The Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Frederik Lundtofte

    (Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, University of St-Gallen)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the term structure of interest rates in an exchangeonly Lucas (1978) economy where consumers learn about a stochastic growth rate through observations of the endowment process and an external public signal. We show that there is a premium for noisy external public information in long-term bonds. In contrast to Feldman (1989), where agents learn only through realized outputs, we find that nonstochastic interest rates are not necessary for the expectations hypothesis to hold.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 06-24.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision: Sep 2006
Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0624

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Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch
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Keywords: learning; information quality; incomplete information; term structure of interest rates;

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  1. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
  2. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 807-837, 04.
  4. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 61-110.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
  7. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  9. Feldman, David, 1992. "Logarithmic Preferences, Myopic Decisions, and Incomplete Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(04), pages 619-629, December.
  10. de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
  11. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  12. Williams, Joseph T., 1977. "Capital asset prices with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 219-239, November.
  13. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  14. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  15. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
  16. Detemple, Jerome B, 1986. " Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 383-91, June.
  17. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September.
  18. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  19. Li, George, 2005. "Information Quality, Learning, and Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(03), pages 595-620, September.
  20. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
  21. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  22. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  23. Dothan, Michael U & Feldman, David, 1986. " Equilibrium Interest Rates and Multiperiod Bonds in a Partially Observable Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 369-82, June.
  24. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-74, September.
  25. Feldman, David, 1989. " The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Partially Observable Econom y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 789-812, July.
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