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Learning about Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation

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Yihong Xia
Abstract

This paper examines the effects of uncertainty about the stock return predictability on optimal dynamic portfolio choice in a continuous time setting for a long-horizon investor. Uncertainty about the predictive relation affects the optimal portfolio choice through dynamic learning, and leads to a state-dependent relation between the optimal portfolio choice and the investment horizon. There is substantial market timing in the optimal hedge demands, which is caused by stochastic covariance between stock return and dynamic learning. The opportunity cost of ignoring predictability or learning is found to be quite substantial. Copyright The American Finance Association 2001.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 56 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 205-246
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:56:y:2001:i:1:p:205-246

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  2. Jurek, Jakub W & Viceira, Luis M, 2006. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 5773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Chacko, George & Viceira, Luis M, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio choice over the life-cycle when the stock and labor markets are cointegrated," Working Paper Series WP-07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wang, Honglin & Reardon, Thomas, 2008. "Social Learning and Parameter Uncertainty in Irreversible Investment----Evidence from Greenhouse Adoption in Northern China," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6310, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  6. Campbell, John Y & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M, 2001. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael Brennan & Yihong Xia, 1999. "Assessing Assets Pricing Anomalies," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1098, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  8. José Carlos Ramirez Sánchez, 2004. "Usos y limitaciones de los procesos estocásticos en el tratamiento de distribuciones de rendimientos con colas gordas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 19(1), pages 51-76, June. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Common determinants of bond and stock market liquidity: the impact of financial crises, monetary policy, and mutual fund flows," Staff Reports 141, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  12. Giordano Pola & Gianni Pola, 2009. "A stochastic reachability approach to portfolio construction in finance industry," Quantitative Finance Papers 0907.3301, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dirk Nitzsche & Keith Cuthbertson & Niall O'Sullivan, 2005. "Mutual Fund Performance: Skill Or Luck?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 4, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  14. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey & Shiva Rajgopal, 2004. "The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting," NBER Working Papers 10550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Michael Stamos, 2006. "Life-Cycle Asset Allocation with Annuity Markets: Is Longevity Insurance a Good Deal?," Working Papers wp146, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  16. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2005. "Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle in the Presence of 'Trickle Down' Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 11247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Vincent Glode & Burton Hollifield & Marcin Kacperczyk & Shimon Kogan, 2009. "Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," NBER Working Papers 15038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Klos, Alexander & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2002. "Über kurz oder lang - Welche Rolle spielt der Anlagehorizont bei Investitionsentscheidungen?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-49, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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