Time-series and Cross-section Information in Affine Term Structure Models
AbstractIn this paper we provide an empirical analysis of the term structure of interest rates using the affine class of term structure models introduced by Duffie and Kan. We estimate these models by combining time-series and cross-section information in a theoretically consistent way. In the estimation we use an exact discretization of the continuous time factor process and allow for a general measurement error structure. We provide evidence that a three factor affine model with correlated factors is able to provide an adequate fit of the cross section and the dynamics of the term structure. The three factors can be given the usual interpretation of level, steepness and curvature. The shocks to these factors are significantly correlated.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2065.
Date of creation: Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Pennacchi, George G, 1996.
"The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 426-46, August.
- Narasimhan Jegadeesh & George G. Pennacchi, 1996. "The behavior of interest rates implied by the term structure of Eurodollar future," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug, pages 426-451.
- repec:fth:inseep:9215 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1998.
"The Central Tendency: A Second Factor In Bond Yields,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 62-72, February.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Das & Silverio Foresi, 1996. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor in Bond Yields," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- 96-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1997. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor in Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 6325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, A.R., 1996. "Simulation Based Estimation of Some Factor Models in Econometrics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne 521, The University of Melbourne.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992.
Papers, Toulouse - GREMAQ
92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De.
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
" An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995.
"Which Moments to Match,"
Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics
95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Alois L. J. Geyer & Stefan Pichler, 1999.
"A State-Space Approach To Estimate And Test Multifactor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models Of The Term Structure,"
Journal of Financial Research,
Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-130, 03.
- Geyer, Alois L J & Pichler, Stefan, 1999. "A State-Space Approach to Estimate and Test Multifactor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-30, Spring.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jin-Chuan Duan & Jean-Guy Simonato, 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Exponential Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. " Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-35, September.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-82, September.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1997. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 6128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.