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Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment

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Author Info
Roider, Andreas (University of Bonn)
Mathias Drehmann
Jorg Oechssler

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Abstract

We report results of an internet experiment designed to test the theory of informational cascades in financial markets. More than 6000 subjects, including a subsample of 267 consultants from an international consulting firm, participated in the experiment. As predicted by theory, we find that the presence of a flexible market price prevents herding. However, the presence of contrarian behavior, which can (partly) be rationalized via error models, distorts prices, and even after 20 decisions convergence to the fundamental value is rare. We also study the effects of transaction costs and the expectations of subjects with respect to future prices. Finally, we look at the behavior of various subsamples of our heterogeneous subject pool.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 177.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:177

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Related research
Keywords: herd behavior informational cascades contrarian investors market efficiency internet experiment

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C99 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Other
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Park & Hamid Sabourian, 2006. "Herd Behavior in Efficient Financial Markets," Working Papers tecipa-249, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2004. "Herding with and without Payoff Externalities - An Internet Experiment," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse15_2004, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," Experimental 0502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jacob K. Goeree & Thomas R. Palfrey & Brian W. Rogers & Richard D. McKelvey, 2006. "Self-Correcting Information Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000211, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Peter Duersch & Albert Kolb & Joerg Oechssler & Burkhard Schipper, 2005. "Rage Against the Machines: How Subjects Learn to Play Against Computers," Game Theory and Information 0510012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Joerg Oechssler & Andreas Roider & Patrick W. Schmitz, 2008. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Working Papers 0465, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised May 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Frederic Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2007. "Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-033, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics, Thueringer Universitaets- und Landesbibliothek. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Frederic Koessler & Ch. Noussair & A. Ziegelmeyer, 2005. "Individual Behavior and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," THEMA Working Papers 2005-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  10. Luca Corazzini & Ben Greiner, 2005. "Herding, Social Preferences and (Non-) Conformity," Working Paper Series in Economics 21, University of Cologne, Department of Economics, revised 24 Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Francesco Feri & Miguel A. Melendez-Jimenez & Giovanni Ponti & Fernando Vega Redondo, 2008. "Error Cascades in Observational Learning: An Experiment on the Chinos Game," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/14, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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