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Japanese GDP Forecasters Are Pressimistic in Boom, Optimistic in Recession, and Always Too Jumpy

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  • Ashiya, M.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not correlated with the magnitude of average forecast errors. These results together are consistent with neither the rational expectations hypothesis nor reputation models with rational and strategic forecasters.

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File URL: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2000/dp0513.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University in its series ISER Discussion Paper with number 0513.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0513

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Keywords: FORECASTS ; MACROECONOMICS ; EXPECTATIONS;

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  1. Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February.
  2. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  3. Ashiya, M. & Doi, T., 1999. "Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists," ISER Discussion Paper 0479, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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