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Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation

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  • komaki, Yasuyuki

Abstract

We examined the accuracy of prediction of Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States from the viewpoint of forecast errors. Compared with the forecast error of each country at the around same time, the forecast error of Japan is about 2 times larger. In case of Japan, even immediately before release of quarterly GDP, the forecast error is over 1 %, which is the same level of forecast error as 94 days before in the United States and 135 days before in Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • komaki, Yasuyuki, 2023. "Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s092214252300018x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
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    4. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Soma, Naoto, 2019. "Inflation target and anchor of inflation forecasts in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 154-170.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast error; Fluctuation; Quarterly GDP; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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