Evaluating Japanese corporate executives’ forecasts under an asymmetric loss function
AbstractWe examine asymmetry in the loss function of Japanese corporate executives in their output growth forecasts and test for rationality of the forecasts under the assumption of a possibly asymmetric loss function. We find evidence of asymmetry and support for rationality under an asymmetric loss function.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 116 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Macroeconomic forecasting; Asymmetric loss; Rational expectations; Forecast evaluation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
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