On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note
AbstractBased on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. [Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., Timmermann, A., 2005. Estimation and testing of forecast rationality under flexible loss. Review of Economic Studies 72, 1107–1125], we studied whether the inflation and output growth projections published by the Bank of Canada are consistent with an asymmetric loss function. Current-year projections provide no signs of asymmetry, but next-year projections do. The hypothesis of rationality of the projections can be rejected under symmetric loss, but not under asymmetric loss.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 115 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Central bank; Forecasting; Loss function;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paolo Surico, 2004.
"Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003
96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Paolo Surico, 2008. "Measuring the Time Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 22-38, 02.
- Paolo Surico, 2004. "Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0401006, EconWPA.
- Surico, Paolo, 2003. "Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0291, European Central Bank.
- Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco .J., 2001.
"Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences,"
Cahiers de recherche
2001-04, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Francisco Javier Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," IMF Working Papers 01/161, International Monetary Fund.
- Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 2001-04, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0106, Banco de Espa�a.
- Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 5(15), pages 1-36.
- Falch, Nina Skrove & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Kenneth F. Wallis, 1999. "Asymmetric density forecasts of inflation and the Bank of England's fan chart," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 167(1), pages 106-112, January.
- Tiff Macklem, 2002. "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Summer), pages 11-18.
- Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010.
"Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function,"
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis,
OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-18.
- Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200905, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function," KOF Working papers 09-237, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008.
"The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?,"
NBER Working Papers
13751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 230-35, May.
- Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2008.
"Are Central Bank Preferences Asymmetric? A Comment,"
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 119-126, 02.
- Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008. "Are Central Bank Preferences Asymmetric? A Comment," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004.
"Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
601, Econometric Society.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
- Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Testing Forecast Optimality Under Unknown Loss," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1172-1184, December.
- Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2001.
"A Prudent Central Banker,"
Cahiers de recherche
2001-07, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2005.
"The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss,"
CUDARE Working Paper Series
1009, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2007. "The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 102-121, May.
- A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, 07.
- Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 354-367.
- Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
- Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2012. "Evaluating Japanese corporate executives’ forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 601-603.
- Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Using forecasts to uncover the loss function of FOMC members," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201302, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.