On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note
AbstractBased on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. [Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., Timmermann, A., 2005. Estimation and testing of forecast rationality under flexible loss. Review of Economic Studies 72, 1107–1125], we studied whether the inflation and output growth projections published by the Bank of Canada are consistent with an asymmetric loss function. Current-year projections provide no signs of asymmetry, but next-year projections do. The hypothesis of rationality of the projections can be rejected under symmetric loss, but not under asymmetric loss.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 115 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Central bank; Forecasting; Loss function;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
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