Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function
AbstractBased on annual data for growth and inflation forecasts for Germany covering the time span from 1970 to 2007 and up to 17 different forecasts per year, we test for a possible asymmetry of the forecasters' loss function and estimate the degree of asymmetry for each forecasting institution using the approach of Elliot et al. (2005). Furthermore, we test for the rationality of the forecasts under the assumption of a possibly asymmetric loss function and for the features of an optimal forecast under the assumption of a generalized loss function. We find evidence for the existence of an asymmetric loss function of German forecasters only in case of pooled data and a quad-quad loss function. We cannot reject the hypothesis of rationality of the growth forecasts based on data for single institutions, but based on a pooled data set. The rationality of inflation forecasts frequently is rejected in case of single institutions and also for pooled data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-237.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Business cycle forecast evaluation; asymmetric loss function; and rational expectations;
Other versions of this item:
- Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-18.
- Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200905, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2009-10-31 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CBA-2009-10-31 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2009-10-31 (Forecasting)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- The loss aversion of economic forecasters
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-12-01 13:59:00
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