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Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function

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Author Info

  • Jörg Döpke

    ()
    (University of Applied Sciences Merseburg, Merseburg/Germany)

  • Ulrich Fritsche

    ()
    (Hamburg University, Faculty Economics and Social Sciences and German Institute of Economic Research, Hamburg/Germany)

  • Boriss Siliverstovs

    ()
    (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zürich)

Abstract

Based on annual data for growth and inflation forecasts for Germany covering the time span from 1970 to 2007 and up to 17 different forecasts per year, we test for a possible asymmetry of the forecasters' loss function and estimate the degree of asymmetry for each forecasting institution using the approach of Elliot et al. (2005). Furthermore, we test for the rationality of the forecasts under the assumption of a possibly asymmetric loss function and for the features of an optimal forecast under the assumption of a generalized loss function. We find evidence for the existence of an asymmetric loss function of German forecasters only in case of pooled data and a quad-quad loss function. We cannot reject the hypothesis of rationality of the growth forecasts based on data for single institutions, but based on a pooled data set. The rationality of inflation forecasts frequently is rejected in case of single institutions and also for pooled data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-237.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-237

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Keywords: Business cycle forecast evaluation; asymmetric loss function; and rational expectations;

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References

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  1. Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
  2. Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Steffen Osterloh, 2008. "Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57.
  4. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
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  8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  9. Ager, Philipp & Kappler, Marcus & Osterloh, Steffen, 2007. "The Accuracy and Efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A Further Application and Extension of the Pooled Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-058, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  10. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
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  13. Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2008. "Are They Really Rational? Assessing Professional Macro-Economic Forecasts from the G7-Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  14. G. A. Christodoulakis & E. C. Mamatzakis, 2009. "Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 583-606.
  15. Hansen, Bruce E & West, Kenneth D, 2002. "Generalized Method of Moments and Macroeconomics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 460-69, October.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The loss aversion of economic forecasters
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-12-01 13:59:00
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Cited by:
  1. Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Ruelke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Forecasting the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso: Asymmetric Loss, Forecast Rationality, and Forecaster Herding," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201202, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  2. Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012. "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 284-287.
  3. Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2012. "Do Private Sector Forecasters Desire to Deviate From the German Council of Economic Experts?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(4), pages 414-428, July.
  4. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Oil price forecasting under asymmetric loss," Discussion Papers 314, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  5. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2012. "Evaluating Japanese corporate executives’ forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 601-603.
  6. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "On the loss function of the Bank of Canada: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 155-159.

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