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Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU

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Author Info
G. A. Christodoulakis (Manchester Business School, Manchester, UK)
E. C. Mamatzakis (Department of Economics, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece)

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Abstract

We estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for major economic forecasts of 12 Member States. Based on a recently proposed method by Elliott, Komunjer and Timmermann (2005) the paper provides evidence of asymmetries in the underlying forecast loss preference of the Commission that tend to vary across Member States. In some cases, our results show that EU forecasts tend to display a rather optimistic picture for main economic variables, e.g. government balance, thus allowing a certain degree of leeway in the fiscal adjustment path towards the medium-term objective of 'close to balance' or 'in surplus' of the recently revised Stability and Growth Pact. Over the period of our sample, 1970-2004, this apparent asymmetry in the underlying loss preferences tends to deter prudent advice over economic policy. Lastly, we provide an analysis on the trade-off between loss and distribution asymmetries, for which simulation results show that the testing method is robust in the presence of skewness. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.1045
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2009-v24.4/
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 583-606
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:24:y:2009:i:4:p:583-606

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Donald, Stephen G & Newey, Whitney K, 2001. "Choosing the Number of Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1161-91, September.
  2. Graham Elliott, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999. "Re-Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 1-32, March. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "The Peso problem hypothesis and stock market returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 707-725, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Keereman, F., 1999. "The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 137, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
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  1. Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200905, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

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