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Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD

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Author Info
Masahiro Ashiya (Kobe University, Japan)

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Abstract

We investigate the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD over the past three decades. We find that 60% of real-GDP forecast series and 37% of GDP-deflator forecast series are consistent with rationality. Forecast smoothing is found in real-GDP forecasts. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.979
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 25-36
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:1:p:25-36

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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