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A Metzlerian business cycle model with nonlinear heterogeneous expectations

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  • Wegener, Michael
  • Westerhoff, Frank
  • Zaklan, Georg

Abstract

Metzler's model is an important contribution to our understanding of the dynamics of business cycles. In his model, the production of consumption goods depends on expected future sales. However, Metzler assumes that producers are homogeneous and follow a simple expectation formation rule. Taking into account that in reality producers might not only follow several expectation formation rules, but might also even switch between them, we reformulate Metzler's original model. As it turns out endogenous business cycles may emerge within our model, i.e. changes in production and inventory are (quasi-)periodic for certain parameter combinations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 715-720

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:715-720

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Business cycles Inventory adjustment Heterogeneous expectations Nonlinear dynamics Neimark-Sacker bifurcation;

References

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  1. Masahiro Ashiya, 2007. "Consensus and accuracy of Japanese GDP forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 969-974.
  2. Franke, Reiner, 1996. "A Metzlerian model of inventory growth cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 243-262, June.
  3. Franke, Reiner & Lux, Thomas, 1993. " Adaptive Expectations and Perfect Foresight in a Nonlinear Metzlerian Model of the Inventory Cycle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 355-63.
  4. Matsumoto, Akio, 1998. "Non-linear structure of a Metzlerian inventory cycle model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 481-492, January.
  5. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2006. "Business Cycles, Heuristic Expectation Formation, and Contracyclical Policies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 8(5), pages 821-838, December.
  6. Puu, Tonu, 2007. "The Hicksian trade cycle with floor and ceiling dependent on capital stock," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 575-592, February.
  7. Frank Westerhoff, 2006. "Samuelson's multiplier-accelerator model revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 89-92.
  8. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
  9. Eckalbar, John C, 1985. "Inventory Fluctuations in a Disequilibrium Macro Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 976-91, December.
  10. Puu, Tonu & Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Irina, 2005. "A Hicksian multiplier-accelerator model with floor determined by capital stock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 331-348, March.
  11. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
  12. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  13. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521551861.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Wegener & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 251-273, April.
  2. Michael Wegener, 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations and debt in a growth model for a small open economy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 125-136, April.

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