Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?
AbstractWe evaluate the usefulness of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter as a proxy for rational expectations, using long runs of annual US inflation data. Our conclusion is that while the HP series are not fully rational in the sense of Muth (1961), they do generally meet the criterion of `weak rationality' recently proposed by Grant and Thomas (1999). They are also rational proxy predictors of direction for, following Merton (1981), agents would not change their prior in the opposite direction to these `forecasts'. However, smoother HP `forecasts' are more prone to inefficiency and less useful predictors of direction.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Note: Received: May 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Kosei Fukuda, 2010. "Three new empirical perspectives on the Hodrick–Prescott parameter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 713-731, December.
- Benner, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Annette & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Schweickert, Rainer, 2005. "Geringere Dynamik der Weltkonjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3490, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Jeremy Couchman & Rukmani Gounder & Jen-Je Su, 2006. "Long memory properties of real interest rates for 16 countries," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 25-30, January.
- Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2011. "Reactions of stock market to monetary policy shocks during the global financial crisis: the Nigerian case," MPRA Paper 35581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2011.
- Marvasti, Akbar, 2013. "The role of price expectations and legal uncertainties in ocean mineral, exploration activities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 68-74.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.