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Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?

Author

Listed:
  • J. Z. Easaw

    (Department of Economics, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath, BA2 7AY, England)

  • S. M. Heravi

    (Cardiff Business School, University of Wales, Aberconway Building, Colum Drive, Cardiff, CF1 3EU.)

  • J. C. K. Ash

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading, PO Box 218, Whiteknights, Reading, Berks, RG6 6AA, England.)

  • D. J. Smyth

    (Economics Group, Middlesex University Business School, The Burroughs, Hendon, London NW4 4BT, England.)

Abstract

We evaluate the usefulness of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter as a proxy for rational expectations, using long runs of annual US inflation data. Our conclusion is that while the HP series are not fully rational in the sense of Muth (1961), they do generally meet the criterion of `weak rationality' recently proposed by Grant and Thomas (1999). They are also rational proxy predictors of direction for, following Merton (1981), agents would not change their prior in the opposite direction to these `forecasts'. However, smoother HP `forecasts' are more prone to inefficiency and less useful predictors of direction.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Z. Easaw & S. M. Heravi & J. C. K. Ash & D. J. Smyth, 2002. "Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 631-643.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:4:p:631-643
    Note: Received: May 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2011. "Reactions of stock market to monetary policy shocks during the global financial crisis: the Nigerian case," MPRA Paper 35581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2011.
    2. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    3. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
    4. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Are gold and silver a hedge against inflation? A two century perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 267-276.
    5. Marvasti, Akbar, 2013. "The role of price expectations and legal uncertainties in ocean mineral, exploration activities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 68-74.
    6. Ching-Chih Chang & Chin-Yuan Hsieh & Yung-Chih Lin, 2012. "A predictive model of the freight rate of the international market in Capesize dry bulk carriers," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 313-317, March.
    7. Benner, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Annette & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Schweickert, Rainer, 2005. "Robuste Weltkonjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3722, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Kosei Fukuda, 2010. "Three new empirical perspectives on the Hodrick–Prescott parameter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 713-731, December.
    9. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 189-201.
    10. Charles O. Manasseh & Nnah M. Iroha & Kingsley I. Okere & Ifeoma C. Nwakoby & Ogochukwu C. Okanya & Nnenna Nwonye & Onuselogu Odidi & Oliver I. Inyiama, 2022. "Application of Markov chain to share price movement in Nigeria (1985–2019)," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Benner, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Annette & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Schweickert, Rainer, 2005. "Geringere Dynamik der Weltkonjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3490, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hodrick-Prescott filter; Rational expectations; Proxy forecasts; Inflation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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