Evaluating Predictions of Change
AbstractThis article applies a technique developed by Robert C. Merton (1981) and Roy D. Henriksson and Robert C. Merton (1981) for evaluating the market timing of financial managers to macroeconomic predictions of change. This methodology may be used to determine whether the predictions may be of value to the user. As an illustration, the methodology is applied to a set of real gross national product forecasts. Copyright 1990 by the University of Chicago.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.
Volume (Year): 63 (1990)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/
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