The results of our empirical analysis rather serve in support of a hypothesis that inflation target undershooting occurs because the economy has been exposed to a series of shocks restraining inflation (the hypothesis of long series of asymmetric shocks) and in part also because the prognostic apparatus has been biased (the hypothesis of skewed sight) as compared to the other institutions. In view of the recent literature dealing with the accuracy of forecasts, which shows that using more models leads to more reliable forecasts (Fildes and Stekler, 2002), it can be argued that the development and application of alternative prediction models would improve forecast accuracy.
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ReDIF This chapter was published in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.) Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, , chapter 6, pages 77-85, 2008.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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