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How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Martin Mühleisen
  • Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak
  • Mr. Stephan Danninger
  • Mr. David Hauner
  • Mr. Bennett W Sutton

Abstract

This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates have been more cautious than in other countries since the mid-1990s. The relatively volatile macroeconomic environment as well as institutional factors, such as Canada's asymmetric deficit target, have likely contributed to this outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Martin Mühleisen & Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak & Mr. Stephan Danninger & Mr. David Hauner & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2005/066, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(2), pages 247-272, June.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2012. "Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 18283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    4. Simon van Norden, 2015. "Estimates of Québec’s Growth Uncertainty," CIRANO Project Reports 2015rp-01, CIRANO.
    5. Mr. Anthony M Annett, 2006. "Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe’s Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 2006/116, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
    7. Robert Hagemann, 2011. "How Can Fiscal Councils Strengthen Fiscal Performance?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2011(1), pages 1-24.
    8. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:3:p:347-364 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Gerardo Uña, 2005. "El Congreso y el Presupuesto Nacional : Desempeño y Condicionantes de su rol en el Proceso Presupuestario," Public Economics 0508013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Peter Heller & David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(4), pages 325-350, August.
    12. Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
    13. Martin Keene & Peter Thomson, 2007. "An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors," Treasury Working Paper Series 07/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    14. Mr. Peter S. Heller & Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," IMF Working Papers 2005/091, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Xavier Debrun & David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2009. "Independent Fiscal Agencies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 44-81, February.
    16. Robert P. Hagemann, 2010. "Improving Fiscal Performance Through Fiscal Councils," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 829, OECD Publishing.
    17. Cepparulo, Alessandra & Gastaldi, Francesca & Giuriato, Luisa & Sacchi, Agnese, 2011. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy:the Italian case," MPRA Paper 32474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?," NBER Working Papers 22349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Paper Series 11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    21. Thiess Büttner & Björn Kauder, 2008. "Methods of Revenue Forecasting: An International Comparison," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 44.
    22. David Hauner, 2007. "Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 347-364, August.
    23. William Easterly, 2012. "The Role of Growth Slowdowns and Forecast Errors in Public Debt Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 151-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. William Easterly, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Debt Crises, and Economic Growth," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo J. Caballero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (ed.),Economic Policies in Emerging-Market Economies Festschrift in Honor of Vittorio Corbo, edition 1, volume 21, chapter 8, pages 139-154, Central Bank of Chile.
    25. Jalles, João Tovar & Karibzhanov, Iskander & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Cross-country evidence on the quality of private sector fiscal forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 186-201.

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