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Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges

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Author Info
Teresa Leal
Javier J. Pérez
Mika Tujula
Jean-Pierre Vidal

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Abstract

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in EU multilateral budgetary surveillance. In view of the increased prominence and sensitivity of budgetary forecasts, which may lead to them being influenced by strategic and political factors, this paper discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner's perspective and places them in the context of the related literature. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2008.00078.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its journal Fiscal Studies.

Volume (Year): 29 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 347-386
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:29:y:2008:i:3:p:347-386

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luca Onorante & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Sara Signorini, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 901, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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