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Forecasting the public finances in the Treasury

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  • Tim Pike
  • David Savage
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    Abstract

    This article describes the methods used by the Treasury and other government departments for making forecasts of the public finances. A highly detailed approach is required because of the Treasury’s budgetary role, but the aggregated results are subjected to careful ‘top-down’ checks. Forecasts have a necessary role in fiscal policy. But they are subject to large margins of error, and should be presented and used with caution.

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    File URL: http://www.ifs.org.uk/fs/articles/fspisav.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its journal Fiscal Studies.

    Volume (Year): 19 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 49-62

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    Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:19:y:1998:i:1:p:49-62

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    Cited by:
    1. Thiess Buettner & Björn Kauder, 2009. "Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 2628, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 0843, European Central Bank.
    3. Andrew Sentance & Stephen Hall & John O'Sullivan, 1998. "Modelling and forecasting UK public finances," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 63-81, February.
    4. Mikhail Golosov & J. R. King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 02/236, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Laura Carabotta, 2014. "Which Agency and Which Period is The Best? Analyzing National and International Fiscal Forecasts in Italy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-46.
    6. Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts As Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/14, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2005. "Wage growth and income tax revenue elasticities with endogenous labour supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-38, January.

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