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Forecasting the PSBR outside government: the IFS perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Giles

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • John Hall

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

Expectations regarding the future state of the public finances are vital for public policy formation. The UK experience has been that forecasts of the PSBR have been beset with problems since the mid-1980s. Independent assessments of the accuracy and plausibility of public finance forecasts are an important check on government forecasts and serve to increase public debate over government finance issues. We examine the success of various possible methods available to those outside government.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Giles & John Hall, 1998. "Forecasting the PSBR outside government: the IFS perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 83-100, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:19:y:1998:i:1:p:83-100
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    File URL: http://www.ifs.org.uk/fs/articles/fscj.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Dilnot & Mark Robson, 1993. "The UK moves from March to December Budgets," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 78-88, February.
    2. Andrew Sentance & Stephen Hall & John O'Sullivan, 1998. "Modelling and forecasting UK public finances," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 63-81, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    2. Etsusaku Shimada, 2023. "Industry-specific analysis of the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment on corporate profits and estimation of corporate tax revenue," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-61, February.
    3. Suman Basu & Carl Emmerson & Christine Frayne, 2003. "An examination of the IFS corporation tax forecasting record," IFS Working Papers W03/21, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Yu Kun Wang & Li Zhang, 2022. "Tax Revenue, Night Lights and Underground Economy: Evidence from China," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 8(2), pages 186-198.
    5. Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
    6. Yota Deli & Derek Lambert & Martina Lawless & Kieran McQuinn & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2017. "How Sensitive is Irish Income Tax Revenue to Underlying Economic Activity?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 317-336.
    7. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2005. "Wage growth and income tax revenue elasticities with endogenous labour supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-38, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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