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Dynamic Revenue Estimation

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  • Alan J. Auerbach

Abstract

This paper considers the question of adopting 'dynamic' revenue estimation methods, which would incorporate the predicted macroeconomic effects of policies. It describes the current revenue estimation process and how these estimates are used in the formation of policy. It then evaluates this process as an exercise in forecasting, considering not only its methodology but also its performance. This evaluation illustrates some of the difficulties that would accompany attempts to use dynamic methods. Finally, the paper relates the choice among different revenue estimation procedures to the political process and the use to which the revenue estimates are put.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.10.1.141
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 141-157

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:10:y:1996:i:1:p:141-57

Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.1.141
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References

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  1. Martin Feldstein, 1993. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the1986 Tax Reform Act," NBER Working Papers 4496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gerald E. Auten & Joseph J. Cordes, 1991. "Policy Watch: Cutting Capital Gains Taxes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 181-192, Winter.
  3. Mark Hooker & Michael Knetter, 1994. "Unemployment Effects of Military Spending: Evidence from a Panel of States," NBER Working Papers 4889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Scrimgeour, Dean, 2010. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer-style Economy," Working Papers 2010-02, Department of Economics, Colgate University.
  2. Alejandro Cuñat & Szabolcs Deák & Marco Maffezzoli, 2008. "Tax Cuts in Open Economies," Working Papers 332, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Auerbach, Alan J., 2002. "The Bush Tax Cut and National Saving," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 55(3), pages 387-407, September.
  4. Alejandro Esteller & Jorge Navas & Pilar Sorribas, . "Las Cestas Autonómicas," Working Papers 1-02 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach, 2005. "Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 421-425, May.
  6. Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 0843, European Central Bank.
  7. Alan J. Auerbach, 2003. "Fiscal Policy, Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 10023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ivo Bischoff & Wolfgang Gohout, 2010. "The political economy of tax projections," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 133-150, April.
  9. Martin Feldstein, 1996. "How Big Should Government Be?," NBER Working Papers 5868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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