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Dynamic Revenue Estimation

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Author Info

  • Alan J. Auerbach

Abstract

This paper considers the question of adopting 'dynamic' revenue estimation methods, which would incorporate the predicted macroeconomic effects of policies. It describes the current revenue estimation process and how these estimates are used in the formation of policy. It then evaluates this process as an exercise in forecasting, considering not only its methodology but also its performance. This evaluation illustrates some of the difficulties that would accompany attempts to use dynamic methods. Finally, the paper relates the choice among different revenue estimation procedures to the political process and the use to which the revenue estimates are put.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.10.1.141
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 141-157

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:10:y:1996:i:1:p:141-57

Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.1.141
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Cited by:
  1. Ivo Bischoff & Wolfgang Gohout, 2010. "The political economy of tax projections," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 133-150, April.
  2. Alan J. Auerbach, 2002. "The Bush Tax Cut and National Saving," NBER Working Papers 9012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alan J. Auerbach, 2003. "Fiscal Policy, Past and Present," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 75-138.
  4. Alejandro Cuñat & Szabolcs Deak & Marco Maffezzoli, 2008. "Tax Cuts in Open Economies," CEP Discussion Papers dp0860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Scrimgeour, Dean, 2010. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer-style Economy," Working Papers 2010-02, Department of Economics, Colgate University.
  6. Alejandro Esteller & Jorge Navas & Pilar Sorribas, . "Las Cestas Autonómicas," Working Papers 1-02 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
  7. Alan J. Auerbach, 2005. "Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 421-425, May.
  8. Martin Feldstein, 1996. "How Big Should Government Be?," NBER Working Papers 5868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.

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