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Taxation and Economic Growth

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Eric M. Engen
Jonathan Skinner

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Abstract

Tax reforms are sometimes touted to have strong macroeconomic growth effects. We consider the impact of a major tax reform on the long-term growth rates of the U.S. economy using three approaches. The first approach is to examine the historical record of the U.S. economy to evaluate whether tax cuts have been associated with economic growth. The second is to consider the evidence on taxation and growth for a large sample of countries. And finally, we use evidence from micro-level studies of labor supply, investment demand, and productivity growth. Our results suggest modest effects, on the order of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point differences in growth rates in response to a major tax reform that changes all marginal tax rates by 5 percentage points and average tax rates by 2.5 percentage points. Nevertheless, even such small effects can have a large cumulative impact on living standards.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5826.

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Date of creation: Nov 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5826

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  1. Karl Aiginger & Martin Falk, 2005. "Explaining Differences in Economic Growth among OECD Countries," Empirica, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 19-43, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Heinz Handler & Andreas Knabe & Bertrand Koebel & Margit Schratzenstaller & Sven Wehke, 2005. "The Impact of Public Budgets on Overall Productivity Growth," WIFO Working Papers 255, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lutz Hendricks, 2001. "Growth, Death, and Taxes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 26-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Gareth Myles, 2000. "Taxation and economic growth," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 141-168, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wang, Jiang, 2007. "Growth and relative living standards - testing Barriers to Riches on post-war panel data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6288, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. James Gallagher & Daniel Hinze, . "Financing Options for Devolved Government in the UK," Working Papers 2005_24, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  7. Morris M. Kleiner & Hwikwon Ham, 2002. "Do Industrial Relations Institutions Impact Economic Outcomes?: International and U.S. State-Level Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dong Fu & Lori L. Taylor & Mine K. Yücel, 2003. "Fiscal policy and growth," Working Papers 03-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  9. Robert Carroll & Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Mark Rider & Harvey S. Rosen, 2000. "Microdata Panel Data and Public Policy: National and Cross-National Perspectives," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 29, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Robert Carroll & Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Mark Rider & Harvey S. Rosen, 1998. "Entrepreneurs, Income Taxes, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 6374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hendricks, Lutz, . "Taxation and Long-Run Growth," Working Papers 96/2, Arizona State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Pablo Serra, 1998. "El Sistema Impositivo y su Efecto en el Funcionamiento de la Economía: Una Revisión de la Literatura," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 39, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  13. Athena K. Kaliva, Radu Tunaru, 2007. "Economic Growth and Indirect Financial Taxes, Empirical Evidence from Greece, Spain and Portugal," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, Lille Graduate School of Management, vol. 4(2), pages 47-74, December. [Downloadable!]
  14. Robert Carroll & Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Mark Rider & Harvey S. Rosen, 2000. "Personal Income Taxes and the Growth of Small Firms," NBER Working Papers 7980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Astrid Landschoot, 2004. "Sovereign credit spreads and the composition of the government budget," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 510-524, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Patrick Minford & David Meenagh & Jiang Wang, 2006. " Testing a Simple Structural Model of Endogenous Growth," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0606, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  17. Federico Guerrero & Elliott Parker, 2007. "The Effect of Federal Government Size on Long-Term Economic Growth in the United States, 1792-2004," Working Papers 07-002, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics & University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. William Gale & Peter Orszag, 2005. "Economic Effects of Making the 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts Permanent," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 193-232, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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