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The Effect of Increased Tax Rates on Taxable Income and Economic Efficiency: A Preliminary Analysis of the 1993 Tax Rate Increases

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  • Martin Feldstein
  • Daniel Feenberg

Abstract

The 1993 tax legislation raised marginal tax rates to 36 percent from 31 percent on taxable incomes between $140,000 and $250,000 and to 39.6 percent on incomes above $250,000. This paper uses recently published IRS data on taxable incomes by adjusted gross income class to analyze how the 1993 tax rate increases affected taxable income, tax revenue, and economic efficiency. Our estimates are based on a difference-in-difference procedure comparing growth of taxable incomes among taxpayers with AGIs over $200,000 to the growth of incomes of lower income taxpayers. We use the NBER TAXSIM model to adjust for interyear differences in the composition of the two taxpayer groups. The results show that high income taxpayers would have reported 7.8 percent more taxable income in 1993 than they did if their tax rates had not increased. Because of the high threshold for the increase in tax rates, this decline in taxable income caused the Treasury to lose more than half of the extra revenue that would have been collected if taxpayers had not changed their behavior. The deadweight loss caused by the higher marginal tax rates (including the effects on labor supply and on consumption of goods and services favored by deductions and exclusions) is approximately twice as large as the $8 billion in revenue raised by the 1993 tax rate. Several possible statistical biases could cause the estimated effect of the tax changes to either underestimate or overestimate the true long-run effect. The paper concludes with a discussion of these problems and of plans for future analysis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5370.

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Date of creation: Nov 1995
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Publication status: published as The Effect of Increased Tax Rates on Taxable Income and Economic Efficiency: A Preliminary Analysis of the 1993 Tax Rate Increases , Martin Feldstein, Daniel Feenberg. in Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10 , Poterba. 1996
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5370

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  1. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Tax Avoidance And The Deadweight Loss Of The Income Tax," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 674-680, November.
  2. Daniel Feenberg & James Poterba, 1992. "Income Inequality and the Incomes of Very High Income Taxpayers: Evidence from Tax Returns," NBER Working Papers 4229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Feldstein, Martin & Poterba, James M. (ed.), 1996. "Empirical Foundations of Household Taxation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226240978.
  4. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Behavioral Responses to Tax Rates: Evidence from TRA86," NBER Working Papers 5000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Martin Feldstein & James M. Poterba, 1996. "Empirical Foundations of Household Taxation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld96-1.
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Cited by:
  1. Bull, Nicholas & Lindsey, Lawrence B., 1996. "Monetary Implications of Tax Reforms," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(3), pages 359-79, September.
  2. Martin Feldstein, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 5469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Emmanuel Saez & Joel B. Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2009. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 15012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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