Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs
Abstract"Program numbers" from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.
Volume (Year): 49 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/
Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
Other versions of this item:
- Steven Phillips & Alberto Musso, 2001. "Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 01/45, International Monetary Fund.
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008.
"Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges,"
Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.
- Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 0843, European Central Bank.
- Juan Zalduendo & Catia Batista, 2004. "Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?," IMF Working Papers 04/203, International Monetary Fund.
- Ruben Atoyan & Patrick Conway, 2011. "Projecting macroeconomic outcomes: Evidence from the IMF," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 415-441, September.
- Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2013. "Fiscal Deficits and the Role of Fiscal Governance: The case of Greece," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 5-30, March.
- Mikhail Golosov & J. R. King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 02/236, International Monetary Fund.
- Graham Bird, 2005.
"Over-optimism and the IMF,"
School of Economics Discussion Papers
0505, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Leal Linares, Teresa & Pérez García, Javier J., 2011. "Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado/The Performance of the Budgetary Target of the Central Government in Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 909 (14 pÃ¡, Diciembre.
- Roberto Benelli, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Boost Private Capital Inflows? the Role of Program Size and Policy Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 03/231, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elizabeth Gale).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.