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Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado/The Performance of the Budgetary Target of the Central Government in Spain

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  • LEAL LINARES, TERESA

    ()
    (Departamento de Economía General y Estadística, UNIVERSIDAD DE HUELVA, ESPAÑA.)

  • PÉREZ GARCÍA, JAVIER J.

    ()
    (Banco de España, ESPAÑA.)

Abstract

En este trabajo estudiamos las características y los determinantes de las desviaciones entre las cifras iniciales y finales de los ingresos y gastos públicos incluidos en los presupuestos generales del Estado en el período 1985-2006 para el caso español. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar el grado de cumplimiento del presupuesto a través de la localización de desviaciones sistemáticas, identificando en el caso que sea posible la naturaleza económica, política o institucional de estas desviaciones. En línea con los trabajos existentes para otros países, y también para España, detectamos la presencia de sesgos sistemáticos en las previsiones presupuestarias, que podrían indicar la existencia de un cierto margen de mejora en la planificación presupuestaria. This paper examines the characteristics and determinants of the deviations between the initial and final figures of the Spanish public budget from 1985 to 2006. Our goal is to evaluate the extent to which initial budgeted figures adhered ex-post to actual fiscal figures, by trying to unveil systematic biases and to identify the economic, political or institutional causes of such deviations. In line with findings for other advanced economies, we document the existence of systematic biases in budget estimates when compared to realised outcomes, thus hinting to the existence of margin for improving budgeting performance in Spain.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 29 (2011)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
Pages: 909 (14 págs.)

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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:29_3_14

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Related research

Keywords: Presupuesto del Estado; errores de predicción; sesgo; eficiencia. ; Public Budget; Forecast Errors; Bias; Efficiency.;

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References

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