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Short- and long-run tax elasticities: the case of the Netherlands

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  • Wolswijk, Guido

Abstract

This paper provides estimates for the base elasticities of Dutch taxes, paying particular attention to differences between short-and long-term elasticities, and allowing for asymmetric adjustment. Estimates are presented for five tax categories for the period 1970-2005, after making appropriate corrections for effects of discretionary tax measures. The empirical results indicate that shortterm elasticities often are lower than long-term ones, notably when taxes are subdued. Consequently, shocks to tax revenues tend to be aggravated by the dynamics of short-term elasticities. Ignoring differences between short- and long-term elasticities contributes to revenue ‘surprises’ and an incorrect assessment of the fiscal stance. JEL Classification: H2, H62, H68

Suggested Citation

  • Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Short- and long-run tax elasticities: the case of the Netherlands," Working Paper Series 763, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007763
    Note: 339143
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp763.pdf
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    1. Koen Caminada & Kees Goudswaard, 1996. "Progression and revenue effects of income tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 3(1), pages 57-66, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    2. Leon Bettendorf & Duncan van Limbergen, 2013. "The stability of tax elasticities in The Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 256, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Pete Devries, 2011. "A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2011/128, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Leon Bettendorf & Duncan van Limbergen, 2013. "The stability of tax elasticities in The Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 256.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Strawczynski Michel, 2014. "Cyclicality Of Statutory Tax Rates," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 11(1), pages 67-96.
    6. Lombardo, Giovanni & Vestin, David, 2008. "Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg-pricing assumptions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 275-279, August.
    7. Wiese, Rasmus & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2018. "Can successful fiscal adjustments only be achieved by spending cuts?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 145-166.
    8. Rozana Himaz, 2015. "Electoral Effects of Public Sector Austerity Efforts in the United Kingdom 1900-2015," Economics Series Working Papers 773, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Yota Deli & Derek Lambert & Martina Lawless & Kieran McQuinn & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2017. "How Sensitive is Irish Income Tax Revenue to Underlying Economic Activity?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 317-336.
    11. Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-99, July.
    12. Liu, Kai & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2015. "Short- and Long-Run Fiscal Elasticities: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 65950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Anselm Komla Abotsi & Gershon Yawo Dake & Richard Abankwa Agyepong, 2014. "Factors Influencing Risk Management Decision of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises in Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(4), December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal indicators; income elasticity; Tax revenue; The Netherlands;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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