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Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach

Author

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  • Altar, Moisa

    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiză şi Prognoză Economico-Financiară (CAPEF))

  • Necula, Ciprian

    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiză şi Prognoză Economico-Financiară (CAPEF))

  • Bobeica, Gabriel

    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiză şi Prognoză Economico-Financiară (CAPEF))

Abstract

This paper provides estimates for the structural fiscal balance for the Romanian economy over the period 1998-2008. The calculation of the structural fiscal balance is useful, since it provides a clear picture of the fiscal stance of the economy and it is essential in the context of a medium term fiscal framework. In order to ensure the robustness of the estimation, we employed two methodologies for the computation of the elasticities of various categories of government revenues and expenditures with respect to the output gap. The two approaches issued similar results, the overall average budget sensitivity being equal to 0.285 and 0.290, respectively. The amplitude of the cyclical budget balance is around 1% of GDP. After constant improvement, the structural balance worsened in 2008, due mainly to the current crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-99, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:79-99
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Moisa, Altar & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy. An Eclectic Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-25, September.
    7. Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 77, European Central Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marko Crnogorac & Santiago Lago Peñas, 2017. "Cyclical sensitivity of public finances in former Yugoslavian countries (2001–2014)," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 1701, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    2. Iancu, Aurel & Olteanu, Dan, 2015. "Fiscal Consolidation by Austerity and EU Surveillance Policies," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 151209, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    3. Rajmund Mirdala, 2013. "Fiscal Imbalances and Current Account Adjustments in the European Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1065, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Habib Ur Rahman & Adam Arian & John Sands, 2023. "Does Fiscal Consolidation Affect Non-Performing Loans? Global Evidence from Heavily Indebted Countries (HICs)," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area Lessons Learned from Fiscal Consolidation," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(8), pages 2236-2276.
    6. Rajmund Mirdala, 2013. "Lessons Learned from Tax vs. Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation in the European Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1058, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Voinescu Ioan-Vlad, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in Romania," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 10(1), pages 026-046, June.
    8. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Financial System Fragility Models," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 110211, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    9. Stanova, Nadja, 2015. "Fiscal discretion, growth and output volatility in new EU member countries," MPRA Paper 63946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Lessons Learned from Tax versus Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 46792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Wissem KHANFIR, 2018. "Structural budget balance and fiscal policy stance in Tunisia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 145-154, Winter.
    12. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; structural fiscal balance; cyclical budget balance; business cycle; tax elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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