Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Altar, Moisa

    ()
    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiză şi Prognoză Economico-Financiară (CAPEF))

  • Necula, Ciprian

    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiză şi Prognoză Economico-Financiară (CAPEF))

  • Bobeica, Gabriel

    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiză şi Prognoză Economico-Financiară (CAPEF))

Abstract

This paper provides estimates for the structural fiscal balance for the Romanian economy over the period 1998-2008. The calculation of the structural fiscal balance is useful, since it provides a clear picture of the fiscal stance of the economy and it is essential in the context of a medium term fiscal framework. In order to ensure the robustness of the estimation, we employed two methodologies for the computation of the elasticities of various categories of government revenues and expenditures with respect to the output gap. The two approaches issued similar results, the overall average budget sensitivity being equal to 0.285 and 0.290, respectively. The amplitude of the cyclical budget balance is around 1% of GDP. After constant improvement, the structural balance worsened in 2008, due mainly to the current crisis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_10/rjef2_10_5.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 79-99

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:79-99

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Email:
Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: fiscal policy; structural fiscal balance; cyclical budget balance; business cycle; tax elasticity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. C�cile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 247, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  3. Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Short- and long-run tax elasticities: the case of the Netherlands," Working Paper Series 0763, European Central Bank.
  4. Moisa, Altar & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy. An Eclectic Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-25, September.
  5. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  6. Nathalie Girouard & Robert W.R. Price, 2004. "Asset Price Cycles, “One-Off” Factors and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 391, OECD Publishing.
  7. Sven Langedijk & Martin Larch, 2007. "Testing the EU fiscal surveillance: How sensitive is it to variations in output gap estimates?," European Economy - Economic Papers 285, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  8. Vincent Koen & Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 417, OECD Publishing.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2013. "Fiscal Imbalances And Current Account Adjustments In The European Transition Economies," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences Quarterly, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(3), pages 323-352, October.
  2. Rajmund Mirdala, 2013. "Lessons Learned from Tax vs. Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation in the European Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1058, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Financial System Fragility Models," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 110211, National Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Iancu, Aurel, 2011. "Models of Financial System Fragility," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 230-256, March.
  5. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2013. "Lessons Learned From Tax Versus Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation In The European Transition Economies," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences Quarterly, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(1), pages 73-98, April.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:79-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.