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Cyclical Adjustment in Fiscal Rules: Some Evidence on Real-Time Bias for EU-15 Countries

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  • Gerhard Kempkes

Abstract

Most EU member states adopt national fiscal rules that refer to cyclically adjusted borrowing limits. Yet, trend increases in public debt caused by the cyclical components are only prevented if the real-time output gaps used to calculate cyclical components balance over time. We analyze real-time output gaps for EU-15 countries estimated by the EU (2002-2012), the IMF (2000-2012), and the OECD (1989-2012) and find a strong negative bias. Simulations suggest that this bias may well translate into considerable debt-ratio hikes. Our findings imply that fiscal rules should incorporate ex post checks of the unbiasedness of cyclical components and a corresponding correction mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Kempkes, 2014. "Cyclical Adjustment in Fiscal Rules: Some Evidence on Real-Time Bias for EU-15 Countries," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(2), pages 278-315, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(201406)70:2_278:caifrs_2.0.tx_2-1
    DOI: 10.1628/001522108X681388
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    2. Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "Survey-Based Structural Budget Balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 8911, CESifo.
    3. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Aitor Lacuesta & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "An exploration of real-time revisions of output gap estimates across European countries," Occasional Papers 1605, Banco de España.
    4. Feld, Lars P. & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2021. "The German "debt brake": Success factors and challenges," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 21/10, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    5. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    6. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2022. "Strukturelle Finanzierungssalden auf verlässliche Füße stellen [Putting Structural Budget Balances on Reliable Footing]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(2), pages 108-113, February.
    8. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
    9. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 193965, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal rules; cyclical adjustment; output gaps; real-time data; debt dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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