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Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy. An Eclectic Approach

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Author Info

  • Moisa, Altar

    ()
    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiza si Prognoza Economico-Financiara (CAPEF))

  • Necula, Ciprian

    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiza si Prognoza Economico-Financiara (CAPEF))

  • Bobeica, Gabriel

    (DOFIN, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest; Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB); Centrul de Analiza si Prognoza Economico-Financiara (CAPEF))

Abstract

The paper provides potential output and output gap estimates for the Romanian economy in the period 1998-2008. Our approach consists in combining the production function structural method with several statistical de-trending methods. The contribution of our analysis to the scarce literature dealing with the estimation of the cyclical position of the Romanian economy is twofold. First, we identify the contribution of the production factors to the potential output growth. Second, we aggregate the results obtained through filtering techniques in a consensus estimate, ascribing to each method a weight inversely related to its revision stability. The results suggest for the period 2001-2008 an average annual growth rate of the potential output equal to 5.8%, but on a descending slope, due to the adverse developments in the macroeconomic context.

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File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_10/rjef3_10_1.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 5-25

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:3:p:5-25

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Related research

Keywords: potential GDP; output gap; NAIRU; business cycle;

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References

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  17. Paul Conway & David Frame, 2000. "A spectral analysis of New Zealand output gaps using Fourier and wavelet techniques," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2011. "Modeling Government Policies used for Sustaining Economic Growth in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 90-105, December.
  2. Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-99, July.
  3. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2013. "Using a Macroeconomic Model to Check Forecast Consistency," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 119-135, March.
  4. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.

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