Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

• Nathalie Girouard

This paper analyses two factors which may cause cyclically-adjusted budget balances to give a misleading picture of underlying fiscal trends. It first explores the implications of recent large asset-market related fluctuations in government revenues for the measurement of structural budget balances. And second, it reviews the impact of the increased recourse to stopgap “one-off” measures to control deficits. The results confirm that since the late 1990s revenues have been more buoyant than would have been warranted by the registered rate of nominal output growth and the impact of tax measures. The study suggests that from 1995 to 2000 the average contribution of “unwarranted” revenues to year-to-year changes in cyclically-adjusted budget positions ranged from negligible to around ½ per cent of GDP, the main countries affected being the United States, the United Kingdom, France and some Nordic countries. Conversely, the subsequent decline in tax receipts has been sharper than could ...

Cette étude analyse deux facteurs qui peuvent contribuer à brouiller la lisibilité des positions budgétaires sous-jacentes évaluées par la mesure traditionnelle du solde budgétaire corrigé des variations cycliques. Dans un premier temps, elle étudie les implications des récentes fluctuations des recettes fiscals associées aux marchés boursiers sur la mesure du solde structurel. Dans un deuxième temps, cette etude discute des effets du recours accru aux facteurs non-récurrents sur la maîtrise des déficits. Les resultants confirment que depuis la fin des années 1990, les recettes fiscales ont été plus dynamiques que ne le laissaient suggérer le taux de croissance nominal de l’activité et les effets des mesures fiscales. Entre 1995 et 2000, la contribution moyenne des recettes non-expliquées au changement annuel du solde budgétaire corrigée pour les variations cycliques oscillerait entre zéro et ½ pour cent du PIB, les principaux pays concernés étant les États-Unis, le Royaume-Uni, la ...

Download Info

To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info

Paper provided by OECD Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 391.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 07 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:391-en

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
Email:
Web page: http://www.oecd.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research

Keywords: fiscal balances structural balances asset prices solde budgétaire solde budgétaire corrigé des variations cycliques prix des actifs

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2005-08-13 (All new papers)
• NEP-MAC-2005-08-13 (Macroeconomics)
• NEP-PBE-2005-08-13 (Public Economics)

Did you know? IDEAS was launched in September 1997.

This page was last updated on 2008-11-17.