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Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries

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  • Deborah Roseveare
  • Willi Leibfritz
  • Douglas Fore
  • Eckhard Wurzel

Abstract

This paper presents simulations of the impact of age-related public expenditures on overall government budget positions and on national savings for 20 countries. Using demographic projections prepared by the World Bank, models have been constructed for the evolution of public pension expenditures and contributions, on the assumption that present policies continue. Sensitivity analysis and some illustrative scenarios of possible reform options are also presented. Scenarios for the evolution of public health-care expenditures are also presented with sensitivity analysis of the assumptions linking age and health-care costs and the evolution of treatment costs. These scenarios for pensions and health care are set within the wider framework of general government balances to capture the effects of public debt accumulation and debt servicing costs ... Ce document présente des simulations de l’impact des dépenses publiques affectées aux personnes en âge de retraite par rapport à l’ensemble des positions budgétaires et l’épargne nationale de 20 pays. A l’aide des projections démographiques établies par la Banque Mondiale, des modèles ont été construits, sur la base de la continuité des politiques actuelles, pour évaluer l’évolution des cotisations et des dépenses publiques relatives aux systèmes de retraite. Une analyse de sensibilité fondée sur d’éventuelles possibilités de réformes des systèmes de retraite est également présentée dans ce document. Des scénarios sur l’évolution des dépenses publiques de santé ont aussi été examinés ; différentes hypothèses sur les liens entre la structure d’âge et les coûts de santé ont été utilisées afin de tester la sensibilité des résultats. L’intégration de ces scénarios dans les comptes consolidés des administrations publiques permet de saisir les effets de l’accumulation de la dette ...

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/463240307711
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 168.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:168-en

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