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Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?

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Author Info
Tilman Brück
Andreas Stephan

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Abstract

The authors assess the political economy determinants of budget deficit forecast errors. Their econometric analysis indicates that Eurozone governments have manipulated deficit forecasts before elections since the introduction of the Stability and Growth Pact. The left-right position and the institutional design of governments also affect the quality of deficit forecasts. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2006.00317.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Kyklos.

Volume (Year): 59 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 3-15
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Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:59:y:2006:i:1:p:3-15

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes," Working Paper Series 307, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Andrikopoulos, Andreas & Loizides, Ioannis & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 2004. "Fiscal policy and political business cycles in the EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 125-152, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2003. "Contingent deficit sanctions and moral hazard with a stability pact," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 187-208, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 2007/23, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  2. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2008. "Fiscal Adjustment to Cyclical Developments in the OECD: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter, 2009. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 7285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Evaluitis – Eine Neue Krankheit," IEW - Working Papers iewwp293, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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