IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/itaxpf/v13y2006i4p325-350.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Heller
  • David Hauner

Abstract

A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of “shocks,” and (iv) the potential for raising revenue. This paper concludes that (i) there is scope, but within narrow limits, to reduce non-age-related expenditures; (ii) fiscal policy frameworks tend to understate risks; and (iii) prevailing tax rates leave little room for increasing taxation in the countries facing the strongest aging pressures. In sum, governments will have to adopt a much more ambitious fiscal policy stance to cope with aging populations. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Heller & David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(4), pages 325-350, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:325-350
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-006-8798-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10797-006-8798-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10797-006-8798-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tanzi,Vito & Schuknecht,Ludger, 2000. "Public Spending in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662918.
    2. Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," IMF Working Papers 2005/071, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    4. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Public sector efficiency: An international comparison," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
    5. Dr Martin Weale, 2005. "Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty for the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 250, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Mr. Martin Mühleisen & Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak & Mr. Stephan Danninger & Mr. David Hauner & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2005/066, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hauner, David & Kyobe, Annette, 2010. "Determinants of Government Efficiency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 1527-1542, November.
    2. Mr. David Hauner & Ms. Annette J Kyobe, 2008. "Determinants of Government Efficiency," IMF Working Papers 2008/228, International Monetary Fund.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/256, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hatra Voghouei & Mohammad Ali Jamali, 2018. "Determinants of government efficiency: does information technology play a role?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 285-298, September.
    5. Asandului, Laura & Roman, Monica & Fatulescu, Puiu, 2013. "The Efficiency of Healthcare Systems in Europe: a Data Envelopment Analysis Approach," MPRA Paper 58954, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2014.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Peter S. Heller & Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," IMF Working Papers 2005/091, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ant—nio Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2023. "The size of government," Chapters, in: António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio (ed.), Handbook on Public Sector Efficiency, chapter 1, pages 6-31, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Christl, Michael & Köppl-Turyna, Monika & Kucsera, Dénes, 2018. "Public sector efficiency in Europe: Long-run trends, recent developments and determinants," Working Papers 14, Agenda Austria.
    4. Gaspar, Ví­tor & Afonso, António, 2006. "Excess burden and the cost of inefficiency in public services provision," Working Paper Series 601, European Central Bank.
    5. Tumaniants, Karen A. (Туманянц, Карэн) & Sesina, Julia E. (Сесина, Юлия), 2017. "Social Expenditures of Russian Regions in Terms of “Input-Output” [Расходы На Социальную Политику Российских Регионов В Координатах «Затраты — Результат»]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 128-149, October.
    6. Ablam Estel APETI & Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Reforms : Fiscal Rules and Public Expenditure Efficiency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2985, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    7. Antonelli Maria Alessandra & De Bonis Valeria, 2018. "Assessing the performance of social spending in Europe," Central European Journal of Public Policy, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 17-31, June.
    8. Martin Heipertz & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, 2008. "Economic and Social Models in Europe and the Importance of Reform," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 255-287.
    9. Riadh Brini & Hatem Jemmali, 2015. "Public Spending Efficiency, Governance, and Political and Economic Policies: is there a Substantial Casual Relation? Evidence from Selected MENA Countries," Working Papers 947, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2015.
    10. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Efthymios Tsionas, 2008. "Does public sector efficiency matter? Revisiting the relation between fiscal size and economic growth in a world sample," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 245-278, October.
    12. Antonis Adam & Manthos Delis & Pantelis Kammas, 2011. "Public sector efficiency: leveling the playing field between OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 163-183, January.
    13. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Bazyli Czyżewski & Anna Hnatyszyn-Dzikowska & Jan Polcyn, 2016. "Problems of Quantifying Public Goods in the Healthcare Sector," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 105-125.
    15. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2005. "The Role of Government in Anti-Social Redistributive Activities," CESifo Working Paper Series 1427, CESifo.
    16. Antonis Adam & Manthos Delis & Pantelis Kammas, 2014. "Fiscal decentralization and public sector efficiency: evidence from OECD countries," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 17-49, February.
    17. Ludger Schuknecht & Holger Zemanek, 2021. "Public expenditures and the risk of social dominance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 95-120, July.
    18. António Afonso & Sónia Fernandes, 2003. "Efficiency of Local Government Spending: Evidence for the Lisbon Region," Working Papers Department of Economics 2003/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2010. "Income distribution determinants and public spending efficiency," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(3), pages 367-389, September.
    20. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2007. "The growth effects of fiscal policy in Greece 1960–2000," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 157-175, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:325-350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.