Fiscal Implications of Demographic Uncertainty for the United Kingdom
AbstractWe assess the implications of demographic uncertainty for the United Kingdom’s fiscal position. We construct stochastic population projections and then use the framework provided by generational accounts to project government revenues and expenditures. We present stochastic paths for the budget balance over time and also evaluate the frequency distribution of the increase in taxes needed to deliver fiscal solvency.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its series NIESR Discussion Papers with number 250.
Date of creation: Jan 2005
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2006-02-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2006-02-05 (Public Economics)
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- Lassila , Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2008. "Population ageing and fiscal sustainability in Finland: a stochastic analysis," Research Discussion Papers 28/2008, Bank of Finland.
- Peter Heller & David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 325-350, August.
- Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M., 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and policy rules under changing demographic forecasts," Discussion Papers 1265, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Peter S. Heller & David Hauner, 2005. "Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," IMF Working Papers 05/91, International Monetary Fund.
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