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Long-Term Economic Forecasting with Structured Analogies and Interaction Groups

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos Nikolopoulos

    (Bangor University)

  • Waleed S. Alghassab

    (University of Hail, Saudi Arabia)

  • Konstantia Litsiou

    (Manchester Metropolitan University)

  • Stelios Sapountzis

    (Salford Business School & Manchester Metropolitan University)

Abstract

This paper explores the potential of long-term economic forecasting with judgmental methods: semi-Structured Analogies(SA) and Interaction Groups (IG). The case study is Saudi Arabia and its aim to adopt a diversification strategy to reduce its dependency on the oil sector, where oil revenue consists 90% of its budget currently. The study has four phases: Unaided Judgment, Structured Analogies, and Interaction Groups with Structured Analogies - all three using disguised data – before finally working on the undisguised case study under review over a significant amount of time. Adopting judgmental methods are attributed to three main reasons: in an attempt to derive long-term economic forecasts about Saudi Arabia’s ability to diversify its investments, to discover the impact of different factors on financial and economic outlooks, and to explore the main reasons for deviating the accuracy of financial and economic forecasts

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Nikolopoulos & Waleed S. Alghassab & Konstantia Litsiou & Stelios Sapountzis, 2019. "Long-Term Economic Forecasting with Structured Analogies and Interaction Groups," Working Papers 19018, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    • Handle: RePEc:bng:wpaper:19018
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bangor.ac.uk/business/research/documents/BBSWP-19-18.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    8. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foresight; Economic Forecasting; Structured Analogies; Interaction Groups; Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
    All these keywords.

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