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Abstract

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.

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File URL: http://run.unl.pt/handle/10362/1887
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology in its journal Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 91-106

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Handle: RePEc:ieu:journl:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:91-106

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Related research

Keywords: scenarios; foresight; assessment;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

References

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1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
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7. Margarida R. Paulos & António B. Moniz, 2009. "Are societal changes new? Questions or trends and future perceptions on knowledge-based economy," IET Working Papers Series 02/2009, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology.
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13. Moniz, António, 2006. "Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process: Experience from Portugal," MPRA Paper 5686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
    
    • António B. Moniz, 2006. "Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process. Experience from Portugal," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 2(2), pages 105-116, November.
14. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ronald D. Lee & Qi Li, 2004. "Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts," Working Papers wp073, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

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Cited by:

1. António B. Moniz, 2009. "Foresight studies on work in the knowledge society: a 2nd international conference at UNL," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 5(5), pages 77-81, November.

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