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Assessing scenarios on the future of work

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Author Info

  • António Brandão Moniz

    ()
    (IET, FCT-Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

Abstract

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CESNOVA-Research on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology in its journal Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 91-106

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Handle: RePEc:ieu:journl:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:91-106

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Related research

Keywords: scenarios; foresight; assessment;

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References

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  1. Margarida R. Paulos & António B. Moniz, 2009. "Are societal changes new? Questions or trends and future perceptions on knowledge-based economy," IET Working Papers Series 02/2009, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CESNOVA-Research on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
  3. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2006. "How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys," Discussion Papers 06-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  4. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
  5. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  6. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, Herman, 2007. "Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 159-165.
  7. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
  8. Moniz, António & Godinho, Manuel M., 2000. "New Methodological Approaches for Change in Traditional Sectors: The Case of the Portuguese Fisheries Socio-Economic System," MPRA Paper 6444, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2000.
  9. Huss, William R., 1988. "A move toward scenario analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 377-388.
  10. Moniz, António, 2006. "Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process: Experience from Portugal," MPRA Paper 5686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
  11. Granger, Clive W.J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2007. "Long-term forecasting and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 539-551.
  12. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ronald D. Lee & Qi Li, 2004. "Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts," Working Papers wp073, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  13. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
  14. Klaus Abberger, 2007. "Forecasting Quarter-on-Quarter Changes of German GDP with Monthly Business Tendency Survey Results," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 40, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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Cited by:
  1. António B. Moniz, 2009. "Foresight studies on work in the knowledge society: a 2nd international conference at UNL," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CESNOVA-Research on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 5(5), pages 77-81, November.

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