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Assessing scenarios on the future of work

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Author Info
António Brandão Moniz () (IET, FCT-Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

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Abstract

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology in its journal Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 91-106
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Handle: RePEc:ieu:journl:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:91-106

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Related research
Keywords: scenarios; foresight; assessment;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Technology Assessment
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Huss, William R., 1988. "A move toward scenario analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 377-388. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Margarida R. Paulos & António B. Moniz, 2009. "Are societal changes new? Questions or trends and future perceptions on knowledge-based economy," IET Working Papers Series 02/2009, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  5. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. António Brandão Moniz, 2008. "Assessing scenarios on the future of work," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 4(4), pages 91-106, November. [Downloadable!]
  7. Moniz, António & Godinho, Manuel M., 2000. "New Methodological Approaches for Change in Traditional Sectors: The Case of the Portuguese Fisheries Socio-Economic System," MPRA Paper 6444, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2000. [Downloadable!]
  8. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Moniz, António, 2006. "Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process: Experience from Portugal," MPRA Paper 5686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. António Brandão Moniz, 2008. "Assessing scenarios on the future of work," Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology, vol. 4(4), pages 91-106, November. [Downloadable!]
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